MLB Picks, Least Valuable Players and A Fond Farewell to a South Side Star

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I believe I heard 649 announcers say Derek Jeter's game-winning hit in his final Yankee Stadium at-bat was the "perfect ending" to his career.

Hmmm. I'm pretty sure the perfect ending would have been a World Series-winning hit, but whatever.

And now that we've got Jeter in our rear-view mirror, we can concentrate on a baseball games that actually matter.

TRULY BALD PROGNOSTICATIONS

I will admit that, after being skeptical, the extra wild-card spots have grown on me. Interest in the race was high and the baseball was exciting.

The A's almost suffered a choke of Cubbian proportions but managed to hang on by the length of a Canseco syringe. Oakland genius Moneyball Beane gave up his most feared offensive player (as well as his clubhouse chemistry) to land Jon Lester, and it almost cost the team a playoff spot. Tuesday night, Lester can reward Beane by beating the Royals, who send "Big Game" James Shields to the mound.

It's nice to see K.C. back in the postseason. I was a Yankees fan as a teenager and I still get chills when I see the grainy video of Chris Chambliss' series-winning HR in 1976. Kansas City used to be a great baseball town, so it will be fun to see the ballpark hoppin' on Tuesday.

I'm thinking the Royals will win if Shields can match Lester and let K.C. get into the Oakland bullpen.

Over in the NL, I'm digging Wednesday's San Fran-Pittsburgh matchup. The Pirates have the better team but the Giants send the better pitcher to the mound. Here's another great baseball town of the 1970s that fell on hard times, but it's two straight postseason appearances for the Pirates and I think Andrew McCuthen & Crew will find some way to beat Ross Bumgarner.

After that, however, I don't like the Pirates' chances against the Nationals. Meanwhile, the other NLDS should be a great one, with Clayton Kershaw leading the Dodgers against the Cardinals' Adam Wainwright in Game 1. The only pitching matchup that might turn out better than that one in the entire postseason would be if the two go at it again in Game 5. It seems the Cardinals always find a way, but of course how true is that? I mean, they don't win the pennant every year. Kershaw and Zack Grienke ... that's a lot of pitching to overcome.

I'll go with the Dodgers to beat the Nats in the NLCS, too.

Back to the AL ... I gotta go with the stacked Angels over the A's-Royals winner. The Tigers-Orioles series is compelling given that Detroit has spared no expense in putting together a dream rotation. The Orioles have relative no-names on their staff but also have one heck of a lineup. But how can I pick against all that Detroit pitching - plus Miguel Cabrera, one of the best hitters of this generation? Turns out, I can't.

Tigers vs. Angels in the ALCS: Lots of star power and power pitching and plain ol' power. The Tigers' pitching depth wins out, as long as their bullpen doesn't implode. (Which is no sure thing.)

So that gives us a Dodgers-Tigers World Series. In the olden days, when Kershaw would have been able to pitch three times in the series after only having had to win one or two other playoff games, this would have been an easy choice. That's no longer the case, though, so the best pitcher in baseball most likely will only pitch twice when it matters most. Because of that, I think I'll go with the Tigers. Their offense can get hot and, again, they have so much front-line pitching - especially if Justin Verlander is right.

All of which probably means the Tigers will lose in the ALDS.

BALD AWARD PICKS

MVP: Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout. After a little bit of consternation for a spell, these turn out to be slam dunks. Kershaw had one of the great seasons ever for a pitcher. Trout had a one-month lull but was outstanding the rest of the year. Both helped their SoCal teams overcome big early-season deficits to win their divisions going away. Frankly, I don't think it should be close in either league.

Cy Young: Kershaw - duh. In the AL, Felix Hernandez seems the obvious choice despite peeing down his leg in the season's final week when his team desperately needed him. If I liked any of the other solid candidates enough, I'd give Felix the thumbs-down, but I don't.

Manager: I'm opting for the beltway duo of Matt Williams and Buck Showalter.

Rookie: Jose Abreu is a 27-year-old former Cuban star, so it almost doesn't feel right picking him. But he is eligible, so he's a total no-brainer selection. In comparison, the NL rookie class is so lame that I'm not even going to bother.

LVP! LVP! LVP!: These aren't really the least valuable players in the sense that many others actually had worse seasons. But given their hype and their salaries, it's hard to top Joe Mauer and Ryan Braun. Mauer needed a late surge to get to 50 RBIs and the Twins are stuck for four more years at $23 million per for a mediocre first baseman who can't hit the ball out of the park and doesn't drive in runs. His biggest impact this season was helping get Ron Gardenhire fired. As often happens to juicers, Braun has become injury-prone. And no longer able to take his slugger's little helpers, he hits a lot of warning-track flyballs. Oh, he's also a pathological liar and a convicted douchebag. Pity the Brewers, who are on the hook for well over $100 million more through 2020. Ugh.

FOND FAREWELL TO THE NON-JETER

While my former employer, AP, and so many other media outlets were fawning over Jeter - and, to be fair, they probably should have done exactly that given all he had accomplished - Paul Konerko bowed out relatively quietly.

It was fitting. Konerko, a rock-solid ballplayer and a fine gentleman, never sought the limelight while giving the White Sox everything he had for 16 years.

I had many great conversations with Paul over the years, and I will always appreciate that, in good times and bad, he stood in front of his locker and dealt with media mopes like me.

Konerko was both understated and underrated. He had 439 HR and 1,412 RBI. He had six 100 RBI seasons (plus years with 99 and 97). He also was instrumental in the city of Chicago's only World Series triumph of the last 97 years.  He was named MVP of the 2005 ALCS but immediately (and correctly) said the award should have gone to the pitchers.

In the end, I'm guessing he will have been just good enough to be have been not quite good enough for the Hall of Fame. But he should be proud of his outstanding career, and I am thankful I got to cover his first dozen years on the South Side.
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It's Turkey Time!

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This kind of snuck up on me this year. I was sitting down, thinking about all I have to be thankful for, and -- wham! -- "Uh-oh, I forgot to choose my Turkey of the Year."

So I'm going to dispense with the long introduction and get right down to the countdown, which will lead to the latest in this parade of  lunkheads, losers, scammers, slimeballs, chokers, cheaters, bullies, boors, pouters and pitiable punching bags:

Mike McCaskey (1998); Jerry Krause (1999); Bobby Knight (2000); David Wells & Frank Thomas (2001); Dick Jauron (2002);Sammy Sosa (2003); Sammy Sosa (2004, the only repeat winner); Andy MacPhail, Jim Hendry & Dusty Baker (2005); Aramis Ramirez (2006); Charlie Weis (2007); Choking Cubbies (2008); Milton Bradley(2009); Mark McGwire (2010); Joe Paterno & Penn State Enablers (2011); U.S. Ryder Cup Team (2012).

As always, this is dedicated to the late, great Gene Seymour, my Copley columnist predecessor and good friend.

10. DOLPHINS OFFENSIVE LINE. You know the old saying: The only time you hear the name of an offensive lineman is when he commits a holding penalty. Or when he leaves voicemails for a fellow lineman filled with vulgarity, profanity and racist taunts. What a mess. It's tough to stay, um, Icognito with this stuff going on.

9. TIM TEBOW. By all accounts, he's a great guy and a noble human being. But being a turkey isn't only about being a wretched human being. Sometimes, it's just about being a wretched quarterback. (And yet he still won one more playoff game as Denver's QB than Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler combined!)

8. GATEHOUSE GANGSTERS. Hey investors! Shares of stock in my former employer can be had for 3 cents apiece! Warning: After systematically gutting the editorial staff over five-plus years and emerging from bankruptcy just this week, it's high time for the pencil-necked weasels who run GateHouse Media to give themselves yet another round of raises and bonuses. Capitalism at its finest!

7. TIGER WOODS. He was golfer of the year and deservedly so. How, then, does he end up on this list? Four more majors by the board, four more also-ran finishes, five years without the only titles he considers truly relevant. As for that two-stroke penalty he had to take for his illegal drop in the Masters, well ... gobble, gobble!

6. DENNIS RODMAN. After befriending Kim Jong Un, Wormy McDiplomat's next project is Charles Manson. "Dude's just a little misunderstood, man."

5. ROB FORD. OK, he's not an athlete, but he is the mayor of a great North American sports town, Toronto, so I'm winging it. Hey, I never thought any politician could top the 2012 GOP presidential circus acts for pure comic relief, but this crack-smoking, drunken-stuporizing, foul-mouthed, real-life Chris Farley character takes the cake. And falls face-first in the frosting on a regular basis.

4. MANTI TE'O. The Notre Dame linebacker enthralled the national media with his heartbreaking story about his longtime girlfriend, who supposedly suffered a tragic death. Problem is, his dearly departed squeeze was no more real than Jan Brady's George Glass. Meanwhile, Alabama showed that Notre Dame's title hopes were an illusion, too.

3. RYAN BRAUN. The Brewers slugger had everything -- fame, talent, money and a legion of loyal fans. But that wasn't enough, so he juiced and made things worse by lying about it. Now, nothing he ever does on the ballfield can be taken seriously. 

2. RILEY COOPER. Eagles wide receiver and infamous cracker threatened to "fight every n----- here" at a Kenny Chesney concert. My immediate reaction: Black people go to Kenny Chesney concerts?

AND NOW ... THE BALDEST TRUTH'S 2013 TURKEY OF THE YEAR:

ALEX RODRIGUEZ

Cheater. Liar. Druggie. Professional Victim. And now he's little more than a pathetic, broken-down lowlife. Yes, the 2012 runner-up was an easy choice as this year's top turkey. 

These days, A-Roid is the poorest multimillionaire on the planet. His wife divorced him. Most of his "friends," no doubt, are the people he pays to stay close to him. Even Yankee fans, not a particularly discerning lot, must have to take long, hot showers after rooting for this miscreant. (I'm talking about the few fans who don't come to the ballpark to boo him.)

There was a time when it seemed possible that he could be the greatest ballplayer ever. Now? As the old-timers would say:

He's just another bum.
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Today's High 5: MLB All-Star Break Edition

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5. Any conversation about baseball's most overpaid players has to start and end with Alex Rodriguez. I mean, the guy has a $275 million contract, hasn't played a minute this season due to injury, looked washed up last year and soon could be suspended for taking PEDs. Yep, A-Rod is a good first choice.

But then who?

Josh Hamilton? Albert Pujols? Alfonso Soriano? Mark Teixeira? Johan Santana? All fine choices. And there are plenty of other candidates.

Why do few if any mention Joe Mauer?

The Twins catcher is the All-American boy. Good looking. Looks like he's worth $184 million. Multiple All-Star. Spurned bigger offers from other teams to stay with his hometown team. He's batting .320, ninth-best in the majors.

You look at all that and you don't want him to be in the conversation. But ...

Mauer has 32 RBI at the All-Star break. Thirty-two! And unlike many of the guys on many overpaid lists, he hasn't been injured.

You know who has more than 32 RBI so far this season?

++ 128 other ballplayers.

++ 15 other catchers ... including his own backup, Ryan Doumit (who also plays OF and DH) ... and Milwaukee's Jonathan Lucroy, Mauer's former backup.

++ at least 8 leadoff men, including one in the NL (Matt Carpenter of St. Louis), who has 13 more RBI than Mauer even though he bats behind the pitcher.

++ 5 other Twins, who combined don't make anywhere near $184 million.

++ Pujols, Soriano and even Hamilton, who has looked lost at the plate most of the season.

++ Brewers OF Ryan Braun, who has missed 30 games with injuries.

++ And, of course, Miguel Cabrera, who goes into the break with 95 RBI -- three times as many as Mauer. I never thought I'd say a guy with a $153.3 million contract was a bargain!

4. The Cubs and White Sox are a combined 27 games under .500 and 29 games out of first place. At least the Cubs have admitted they're rebuilding.

3. Giants ex-stud Tim Lincecum pitched a no-hitter against the anemic Padres on Saturday. He was allowed to throw 148 pitches.

148 pitches! Wow. I hope the no-no was worth it.

In the eighth and ninth innings, the one-time flamethrower's fastball was topping out at 91 mph. His mechanics have been messed up the last couple of years.

"There was no way he was coming out," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. "I was just praying he didn't hit the 150 mark."

He should be praying Lincicum avoids the disabled list.

2. MIDSEASON AWARDS:

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers. It's a very close two-man race between Mr. Triple Crown and Baltimore's Eric Davis. Right now, we'll give a slight edge to the guy who has his team in first place.

NL MVP: Yadier Molina, Cardinals. The No. 1 catcher in baseball -- ridiculously better than Mauer -- does so much behind the plate for the NL's best team that it almost doesn't matter what he does at the plate. Having said that, he also leads the league in batting. Narrow call over teammate Allen Craig and Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt.

AL Cy Young: Bartolo Colon, A's. Let's give him something to be happy about because there's word that he might get suspended for juicing. I never would have guessed that he'd need to cheat to get that body! Max Scherzer and Felix Hernandez are right up there, too.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw is only 8-6 but he leads the league in ERA, WHIP and BA against. Tough call over Patrick Corbin, Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Harvey and Adam Wainwright.

1. At 56-37, the Pirates have baseball's third-best record.

I want to believe in them.

Then again, I wanted to believe in them last season, too.

There's absolutely no way they'll find some way to go 24-45 in the second half to wrap up their 21st straight losing season, right?

Right?
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Guilty or innocent? That's just one question surrounding Braun

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What are we supposed to make of the Ryan Braun doping incident?

The give-a-dude-the-benefit-of-doubt and innocent-until-proven-guilty sides of me are happy that, if he really was innocent, he was exonerated.

The born cynic in me -- the one who is still mad at himself for letting down his guard and getting duped by Sammy Flintstone Vitamins and Mark McLiar -- can't help but shake the feeling that Braun got away with the juicing equivalent of manslaughter.

Mostly, I have questions ...

Given that some BBWAA voters didn't cast Hall of Fame ballots for Jeff Bagwell and Edgar Martinez on the mere suspicion of steroid use, will Braun be denied baseball's ultimate honor no matter how great his final numbers are?

Did an innocent Braun have to argue something that made him sound guilty -- a chain-of-custody screwup involving his urine sample -- because it really is impossible to prove one's innocence when one has been charged with doping?

Will his success at beating the charge embolden other ballplayers to try to cheat?

If Braun was guilty, why has he passed every other drug test he was given, including a follow-up test shortly after the one in question detected elevated levels of testosterone?

As with most issues, there are serious shades of gray. Opinions, however, are mostly black and white. Those who want to think Braun is guilty won't change their minds. Nor will those who want to think he's innocent.

Brewers fans will stick with him no matter what, the same way Giants and Cardinals fans who were deceived by Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire still cheer their heroes.

Braun has always seemed to be a decent guy. I want to believe him. It's not easy.

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MVPs (Mike's Value Picks)

When the baseball writers decided to start giving out individual awards 80 years ago, there was a reason they opted to call it "Most VALUABLE Player" and not just "Player of the Year."

Anybody can look at stats and say, "This guy's the best." There is nuance in determining "value." I had absolutely no problem with Willie Stargell winning the 1979 NL MVP (actually, a tie with Keith Hernandez) even though Hernandez had significantly better stats. Voters decided that Stargell's value -- the way he willed the Pirates to a division title -- was more valuable than raw numbers. And they were right!

The BBWAA left it up to each voter to define value. I like that, too, because it nets a nice cross-section of votes. Some writers won't vote for pitchers. Some vote for the guy with the best stats. And many -- including yours truly -- believes the only possible definition of value suggests a player who brought both outstanding stats and outstanding intangibles to a contending team.

Despite their superior stats, I have a hard time accepting Jose Bautista and/or Matt Kemp as MVPs this season. While the guys I chose faced pressure every single day, Bautista and Kemp had the huge advantage of playing in few games that mattered in the standings. Their ballclubs stunk with them and their ballclubs would have stunk if they had suffered season-ending injuries in April. Where's the value?

The Bautista and Kemp backers often cite precedence: Alex Rodriguez, Andre Dawsonand Ernie Banks, among other players for non-contenders, are former MVPs. Hey, just because voters made a mistake in those seasons, it doesn't mean we should repeat that mistake now. Most years, my BBWAA colleagues have agreed with me.

Anyway, if I had a vote, here would be the MVP ballots I'd cast in 2011:

American League

1. JUSTIN VERLANDER. I know, I know ... he participated in barely one-fifth of his team's games. Well, this is why we can't just let stats dictate these things -- not that Verlander lacks amazing stats. Let's look past his sheer brilliance all season, especially in the second half as the Tigers ran away with the division title. Instead, let's look at the intangibles: Because Verlander saved the bullpen every fifth day, Jim Leyland had a full and rested relief corps at his disposal the rest of the time; psychologically, the team knew it would never have a killer losing streak because every fifth day a win was all but guaranteed; for the first two-thirds of the season, Verlander was the only starter who kept Detroit in the race; inspired by Verlander -- and relieved of the burden of carrying the team -- other Detroit starters finally came around and several went on to exceed expectations. And let's consider this hypothetical: If an average ballplayer (say, Coco Crisp) replaced Curtis Granderson in center field, would the Yankees have won their division? Almost surely. Now, if an average starter (say, Trevor Cahill) replaced Verlander in the rotation, would the Tigers have won their division? Please.

2. CURTIS GRANDERSON. Many associated with the team believe Robinson Cano actually is the straw that stirs the Yankees' drink. Still, Granderson had the stats of an elite player and benefited the players both in front of and behind him in the lineup.

3. JACOBY ELLSBURY. One of the few Red Sox who didn't choke down the stretch. Besides having 105 RBI mostly from the leadoff spot, Ellsbury steals bases and plays fine CF.

4. MIGUEL CABRERA. The AL's best all-around hitter had another banner season for Detroit.

5. ROBINSON CANO. His performance made up for A-Rod's injury-filled year and for Mark Teixeira's occasional struggles.

6. MICHAEL YOUNG. A big reason the Rangers survived injuries to Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Adrian Beltre.

7. JOSE VALVERDE. Forty-nine times, Leyland asked him to protect a lead. Forty-nine times Papa Grande came through. Pretty hard to ignore a guy with a 100 percent success rate.

8. JOSE BAUTISTA. Incredible stats, especially the first half. My definition of value, however, relegates him to this spot on my ballot.

9. CC SABATHIA. For much of the season, he had even less support in his rotation than Verlander did in Detroit's.

10. EVAN LONGORIA. While Adrian Gonzalez -- the midseason pick for this award -- was shrinking in the season's second half, Longoria was scorching: 24 RBI in August and 22 more in September, including the Rays' two biggest HRs in the wild-card clincher.

National League

1. RYAN BRAUN. I had a difficult time separating Braun and Prince Fielder. One could make a pretty good argument that with Fielder protecting Braun -- versus the likes of Casey McGehee protecting Fielder -- Braun saw far more hittable pitches all season. Still, Braun's statistical advantage in most categories gives him the edge.

2. PRINCE FIELDER. As I said, he helped make Braun's big season possible. Plus, he put up monster numbers despite opponents often pitching around him. He plays every day, hits the ball far and seems to have a lot of fun being the Brew Crew leader.

3. MATT KEMP. His Dodgers stunk, so I make no apologies for placing him here despite his great stats. You want precedents? Ted Williams batted .406 in 1941 and won the Triple Crown the following year; in neither season was he MVP ... and Matt Kemp is no Ted Williams.

4. ALBERT PUJOLS. His slow start contributed to the Cardinals having to play catch-up but he had 20 RBI in September to wrap up another impressive season and help the Cards rally to the postseason. There is no more feared hitter in the world.

5. RYAN HOWARD. I admit I'm not 100 percent sure he's even Philly's MVP, but he is by far the best run-producer on baseball's best team ... and that's gotta count for something.

6. LANCE BERKMAN. In addition to finishing with nice numbers, he carried the Cards while Pujols was all messed up and Matt Holliday was hurt. Slam-dunk Comeback Player choice.

7. ROY HALLADAY. Why Doc instead of rotation-mate Cliff Lee? Because Halladay is the tone-setter and acknowledged ace of a great staff.

8. JUSTIN UPTON. The top hitter on baseball's surprise team.

9. HUNTER PENCE. Did precisely what a guy going from a crappy team to a great one was supposed to do, taking advantage of more talented teammates by elevating his already high level of play.

10. JOHN AXFORD. Considered Jose Reyes here but he lost me when he took himself out of the season finale after one inning so he could preserve his batting-title lead. He might as well as told Mets fans who paid $100 a pop to go to h-e-double-Louisville-Sluggers. Instead, I'll give spot No. 10 to the Brewers' ninth-inning stalwart.

A few other awards:

CY YOUNG: AL -- Verlander (over Sabathia and Jered Weaver); NL -- Clayton Kershaw(over Halladay and Lee). Remember: Cy Young is best pitcher, not most valuable pitcher, and Kershaw was ridiculously good for the mediocre Dodgers.

ROOKIE: AL -- Mark Trumbo (over Ivan Nova and Eric Hosmer); NL -- Craig Kimbrel(over Freddie Freeman and Vance Worley). It wasn't Kimbrel's fault he was overused and had nothing left at the end.

MANAGER: AL -- Joe Maddon (over Joe Girardi and Jim Leyland); NL -- Kirk Gibson(over Tony La Russa and Ron Roenicke). Two obvious choices.

And before I wrap this up ...

LVP (LEAST VALUABLE PLAYERS):

AL: Adam Dunn ... by a landslide. He authored one of the statistically worst offensive seasons in baseball history: .159 BA, 177 K, .569 OPS. He was so bad that the White Sox -- who signed him to a $56 million contract -- benched him in favor of Triple-A kids in a desperate (and futile) effort to stay in the race.

NL: Derek Lowe. The diametric opposite of an MVP. Not only did Lowe lead MLB with 17 losses, he went 0-5 with an 8.75 ERA in September to make himself the one most responsible for Atlanta's historic collapse. All for only 15 million bucks. Now that's the true antithesis of value!

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