MLB Picks, Least Valuable Players and A Fond Farewell to a South Side Star

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I believe I heard 649 announcers say Derek Jeter's game-winning hit in his final Yankee Stadium at-bat was the "perfect ending" to his career.

Hmmm. I'm pretty sure the perfect ending would have been a World Series-winning hit, but whatever.

And now that we've got Jeter in our rear-view mirror, we can concentrate on a baseball games that actually matter.

TRULY BALD PROGNOSTICATIONS

I will admit that, after being skeptical, the extra wild-card spots have grown on me. Interest in the race was high and the baseball was exciting.

The A's almost suffered a choke of Cubbian proportions but managed to hang on by the length of a Canseco syringe. Oakland genius Moneyball Beane gave up his most feared offensive player (as well as his clubhouse chemistry) to land Jon Lester, and it almost cost the team a playoff spot. Tuesday night, Lester can reward Beane by beating the Royals, who send "Big Game" James Shields to the mound.

It's nice to see K.C. back in the postseason. I was a Yankees fan as a teenager and I still get chills when I see the grainy video of Chris Chambliss' series-winning HR in 1976. Kansas City used to be a great baseball town, so it will be fun to see the ballpark hoppin' on Tuesday.

I'm thinking the Royals will win if Shields can match Lester and let K.C. get into the Oakland bullpen.

Over in the NL, I'm digging Wednesday's San Fran-Pittsburgh matchup. The Pirates have the better team but the Giants send the better pitcher to the mound. Here's another great baseball town of the 1970s that fell on hard times, but it's two straight postseason appearances for the Pirates and I think Andrew McCuthen & Crew will find some way to beat Ross Bumgarner.

After that, however, I don't like the Pirates' chances against the Nationals. Meanwhile, the other NLDS should be a great one, with Clayton Kershaw leading the Dodgers against the Cardinals' Adam Wainwright in Game 1. The only pitching matchup that might turn out better than that one in the entire postseason would be if the two go at it again in Game 5. It seems the Cardinals always find a way, but of course how true is that? I mean, they don't win the pennant every year. Kershaw and Zack Grienke ... that's a lot of pitching to overcome.

I'll go with the Dodgers to beat the Nats in the NLCS, too.

Back to the AL ... I gotta go with the stacked Angels over the A's-Royals winner. The Tigers-Orioles series is compelling given that Detroit has spared no expense in putting together a dream rotation. The Orioles have relative no-names on their staff but also have one heck of a lineup. But how can I pick against all that Detroit pitching - plus Miguel Cabrera, one of the best hitters of this generation? Turns out, I can't.

Tigers vs. Angels in the ALCS: Lots of star power and power pitching and plain ol' power. The Tigers' pitching depth wins out, as long as their bullpen doesn't implode. (Which is no sure thing.)

So that gives us a Dodgers-Tigers World Series. In the olden days, when Kershaw would have been able to pitch three times in the series after only having had to win one or two other playoff games, this would have been an easy choice. That's no longer the case, though, so the best pitcher in baseball most likely will only pitch twice when it matters most. Because of that, I think I'll go with the Tigers. Their offense can get hot and, again, they have so much front-line pitching - especially if Justin Verlander is right.

All of which probably means the Tigers will lose in the ALDS.

BALD AWARD PICKS

MVP: Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout. After a little bit of consternation for a spell, these turn out to be slam dunks. Kershaw had one of the great seasons ever for a pitcher. Trout had a one-month lull but was outstanding the rest of the year. Both helped their SoCal teams overcome big early-season deficits to win their divisions going away. Frankly, I don't think it should be close in either league.

Cy Young: Kershaw - duh. In the AL, Felix Hernandez seems the obvious choice despite peeing down his leg in the season's final week when his team desperately needed him. If I liked any of the other solid candidates enough, I'd give Felix the thumbs-down, but I don't.

Manager: I'm opting for the beltway duo of Matt Williams and Buck Showalter.

Rookie: Jose Abreu is a 27-year-old former Cuban star, so it almost doesn't feel right picking him. But he is eligible, so he's a total no-brainer selection. In comparison, the NL rookie class is so lame that I'm not even going to bother.

LVP! LVP! LVP!: These aren't really the least valuable players in the sense that many others actually had worse seasons. But given their hype and their salaries, it's hard to top Joe Mauer and Ryan Braun. Mauer needed a late surge to get to 50 RBIs and the Twins are stuck for four more years at $23 million per for a mediocre first baseman who can't hit the ball out of the park and doesn't drive in runs. His biggest impact this season was helping get Ron Gardenhire fired. As often happens to juicers, Braun has become injury-prone. And no longer able to take his slugger's little helpers, he hits a lot of warning-track flyballs. Oh, he's also a pathological liar and a convicted douchebag. Pity the Brewers, who are on the hook for well over $100 million more through 2020. Ugh.

FOND FAREWELL TO THE NON-JETER

While my former employer, AP, and so many other media outlets were fawning over Jeter - and, to be fair, they probably should have done exactly that given all he had accomplished - Paul Konerko bowed out relatively quietly.

It was fitting. Konerko, a rock-solid ballplayer and a fine gentleman, never sought the limelight while giving the White Sox everything he had for 16 years.

I had many great conversations with Paul over the years, and I will always appreciate that, in good times and bad, he stood in front of his locker and dealt with media mopes like me.

Konerko was both understated and underrated. He had 439 HR and 1,412 RBI. He had six 100 RBI seasons (plus years with 99 and 97). He also was instrumental in the city of Chicago's only World Series triumph of the last 97 years.  He was named MVP of the 2005 ALCS but immediately (and correctly) said the award should have gone to the pitchers.

In the end, I'm guessing he will have been just good enough to be have been not quite good enough for the Hall of Fame. But he should be proud of his outstanding career, and I am thankful I got to cover his first dozen years on the South Side.
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Today's High 5: MLB All-Star Break Edition

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5. Any conversation about baseball's most overpaid players has to start and end with Alex Rodriguez. I mean, the guy has a $275 million contract, hasn't played a minute this season due to injury, looked washed up last year and soon could be suspended for taking PEDs. Yep, A-Rod is a good first choice.

But then who?

Josh Hamilton? Albert Pujols? Alfonso Soriano? Mark Teixeira? Johan Santana? All fine choices. And there are plenty of other candidates.

Why do few if any mention Joe Mauer?

The Twins catcher is the All-American boy. Good looking. Looks like he's worth $184 million. Multiple All-Star. Spurned bigger offers from other teams to stay with his hometown team. He's batting .320, ninth-best in the majors.

You look at all that and you don't want him to be in the conversation. But ...

Mauer has 32 RBI at the All-Star break. Thirty-two! And unlike many of the guys on many overpaid lists, he hasn't been injured.

You know who has more than 32 RBI so far this season?

++ 128 other ballplayers.

++ 15 other catchers ... including his own backup, Ryan Doumit (who also plays OF and DH) ... and Milwaukee's Jonathan Lucroy, Mauer's former backup.

++ at least 8 leadoff men, including one in the NL (Matt Carpenter of St. Louis), who has 13 more RBI than Mauer even though he bats behind the pitcher.

++ 5 other Twins, who combined don't make anywhere near $184 million.

++ Pujols, Soriano and even Hamilton, who has looked lost at the plate most of the season.

++ Brewers OF Ryan Braun, who has missed 30 games with injuries.

++ And, of course, Miguel Cabrera, who goes into the break with 95 RBI -- three times as many as Mauer. I never thought I'd say a guy with a $153.3 million contract was a bargain!

4. The Cubs and White Sox are a combined 27 games under .500 and 29 games out of first place. At least the Cubs have admitted they're rebuilding.

3. Giants ex-stud Tim Lincecum pitched a no-hitter against the anemic Padres on Saturday. He was allowed to throw 148 pitches.

148 pitches! Wow. I hope the no-no was worth it.

In the eighth and ninth innings, the one-time flamethrower's fastball was topping out at 91 mph. His mechanics have been messed up the last couple of years.

"There was no way he was coming out," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. "I was just praying he didn't hit the 150 mark."

He should be praying Lincicum avoids the disabled list.

2. MIDSEASON AWARDS:

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers. It's a very close two-man race between Mr. Triple Crown and Baltimore's Eric Davis. Right now, we'll give a slight edge to the guy who has his team in first place.

NL MVP: Yadier Molina, Cardinals. The No. 1 catcher in baseball -- ridiculously better than Mauer -- does so much behind the plate for the NL's best team that it almost doesn't matter what he does at the plate. Having said that, he also leads the league in batting. Narrow call over teammate Allen Craig and Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt.

AL Cy Young: Bartolo Colon, A's. Let's give him something to be happy about because there's word that he might get suspended for juicing. I never would have guessed that he'd need to cheat to get that body! Max Scherzer and Felix Hernandez are right up there, too.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw is only 8-6 but he leads the league in ERA, WHIP and BA against. Tough call over Patrick Corbin, Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Harvey and Adam Wainwright.

1. At 56-37, the Pirates have baseball's third-best record.

I want to believe in them.

Then again, I wanted to believe in them last season, too.

There's absolutely no way they'll find some way to go 24-45 in the second half to wrap up their 21st straight losing season, right?

Right?
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Overpaid jocks? How 'bout overpaid CEOs!

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Every once in a while, a friend or a reader (or both -- they aren't mutually exclusive!) will start a conversation about the mega-bucks so many athletes receive. S0metimes, I start the conversation myself, as was the case in my back-to-back posts about Joe Mauer last week.

Though I find athlete compensation to be an extremely interesting subject, I just about never am outraged about the salaries these folks get. For one thing, nobody forces team owners to dole out these kinds of dollars. For another, well-compensated athletes are among the very best in the world at what they do. They work hard. They earn their money.

This brings me to a recent story I saw about the CEO of Lowe's hardware chain, a guy named Robert Niblock.

Niblock had a pretty lousy year in 2011, with Lowes profits falling 8.5 percent. The chain announced it was closing 20 stores and slowing future growth.

For this, Niblock saw his compensation decline -- to only $11.6 million. (He had made $12 million in 2010.)

Think about that. He failed at his mission, yet he still was rewarded with $11.6 million.

Now, THAT's outrageous.

Let's turn this conversation back to Joe Mauer. He is one of only 30 people on the planet good enough to start at catcher for a major league team. And Mauer is a multiple All-Star, meaning he is a member of a group that numbers only about a half-dozen -- in the entire world!

It's classic supply and demand. There are very, very, very few Joe Mauers available, and he is fortunate enough to take part in a multibillion-dollar business with a history of compensating its best participants well.

Is Mauer as valuable to society as the best teachers, cops, firefighters, nurses, doctors, etc.? Of course not. But there are millions of those fine folks.

My wife is a nurse, and an excellent one ... but she is not one of only six people in the entire world who is outstanding at what she does. Literally just about anybody could be a nurse; hardly anybody can be an All-Star big-league catcher.

With proper training, Mauer could be a nurse. He also could be the CEO of a major corporation. And he probably would do as well -- or better -- than Robert Niblock.

Thousands -- maybe millions -- of us regular folks have the intelligence and work ethic to do what Niblock does if we had the training and the breeding and the luck. Very, very few of us have the physical ability to do what Mauer does.

I don't mean to pick on Niblock. He is one of hundreds upon hundreds of corporate titans who gets huge money, regardless of whether their companies succeed or fail.

CEOs and others high in the corporate food chain have a profound effect on the economy. So many of them are fine men and women, so I don't want to rip the entire group, but the greediest among them can conspire to melt down our financial system, as almost happened a few years ago. Some even engage in criminal acts, with a very small percentage of those miscreants ever serving jail time.

If you want to be outraged by elite salaries, don't bother with jocks and rock stars and actors. In the big picture, they mean bupkis to society.

Be outraged about executive compensation, especially for those who run their companies into the ground and put our national financial security at risk. That means something.

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For better or worse (almost surely worse), Twins couldn't let No-Power Mauer leave

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The Twins simply had to sign Joe Mauer, a St. Paul kid, a top draft pick and a multiple All-Star who would have been courted by at least a dozen teams with lots of money to spend.

When the sides came to terms on that eight-year, $184 million contract extension through 2018, Mauer was coming off an outstanding 2009 season, his fifth straight good year. He had been mostly healthy and productive, he was only 27 years old and he was a fine defensive catcher. Even if the Twins believed he wouldn't be able to play such a physically demanding position for the entirety of the contract, they had every reason to think he was a good enough athlete to play elsewhere. Failing that, he could always be a DH down the line.

The public-relations hit they would have taken by letting a hometown hero go elsewhere -- especially after ownership had fleeced taxpayers for a new downtown ballpark that supposedly was going to let them compete financially with the big boys -- would have been devastating.

Yes, the Twins had to keep Joe Mauer.

So my previous post was not meant to rip them for Mauer being a bust. It was more about calling out those from Minnesota who have criticized the Angels for signing Albert Pujols -- who, unlike Mauer, will be remembered as one of the greatest hitters in baseball history.

Mauer has failed to live up to the contract ... but is that really his fault? He is who he is. Aside from his one big year, he hasn't been much of a run-producer. (And even in that one year, he was no Albert Pujols.) He needs to hit better than he has the last couple of years, but he'll never be Johnny Bench.

Joe Mauer was the beneficiary of incredible timing: He had his career year just as the Twins were preparing to move into a new ballpark and just as his contract situation had to be addressed. More power to him (if not to his bat).

Look, I know "bust" might be too strong a word. If Mauer can stay healthy, he has a chance to be kind of a Mark Grace of catchers. High average, lots of singles and doubles, good glove, good guy in the clubhouse. That isn't necessarily a bad thing ... if you can ignore the fact that he will be paid a gazillion times more than Grace ever made.

When you are a limited-revenue team like the Twins and pay a singles hitter $23 million a year, you probably won't be able to acquire the kind of run-producers and pitchers necessary to compete for championships.

Still, in 2010, the Twins had to do this deal with Mauer. That's life in the big leagues.

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Joe Mauer: Baseball's biggest bust?

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I was clicking through channels Monday afternoon when I stopped to watch the Angels-Twins game on MLB for a few minutes. The feed was from Minnesota and featured Twins announcers Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven.

I know Bremer well from my years in Minnesota -- he and I actually did a few radio shows together -- and I consider him a good announcer. Still, he made a few curious comments about the Angels' signing of Albert Pujols during the short time I had the game on.

I'm paraphrasing here, because I wasn't recording the game or taking notes. Bremer seemed to criticize the Angels for paying Pujols so much for such a long stretch, noting that Pujols will be an old man when the Angels are paying him huge sums next decade.

Though it's a valid point, it sounded odd coming from a broadcaster for the team that employs Joe Mauer.

Pujols has been one of the best hitters ever and has led teams to championships. He never has had anything but outstanding seasons, has avoided serious injury and plays a relatively low-impact position. While it would be a stretch to expect him to produce big-time at the end of his contract, he likely has many, many more great years ahead of him.

Mauer, meanwhile, has been a total bust since the Twins gave him an eight-year, $184 million extension before the 2010 season, and it's hard to imagine them getting anywhere near good value for their investment.

He batted about as soft a .327 as is humanly possible in '10 -- only 75 RBIs for a middle-of-the-order supposed stud protected by Justin Morneau -- and followed that with a horrid, injury-plagued 2011 season. He has barely hit the ball out of the infield so far in 2012.

With a mere 37 HR and 99 RBI for the Cardinals, Pujols was coming off the "worst" season of his career in 2011, which he capped by helping the Cardinals win another World Series.

Mauer? He never has had either 30 HR or 100 RBI in any season; in fact, he's only had one year with more than 13 HR and 85 RBI. He also has "led" the Twins to an 0-9 postseason record, driving in a total of 1 run in those nine games.

And yet the Twins threw $184 million at him. Since getting that deal, this alleged superstar has 12 HR and 106 RBI in 223 games.

Sabermetricians can throw all kinds of fancy stats at me, but sorry ... I want my $184 million ballplayers to drive in a few runs. Shoot me.

Unless he turns things around dramatically, he can only be considered one of the most overpaid, most overrated, least valuable players in baseball.

He is injury prone, he plays a high-impact position and he figures to be a broken-down 35-year-old when the Twins are on the hook for $23 million in 2018.

Yes, shame on the Angels for giving such big money to Albert Pujols.

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13 sharp baseball observations

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During a Southwest Airlines flight to Seattle this week, my daughter Katie inadvertently brought a large pair of scissors in her carry-on bag. The fine TSA folks operating the x-ray gear didn't detect the sharp implement. Obviously, though, Katie isn't a terrorist. I mean, it's not as if she tried to sneak a 4-ounce bottle of shampoo on the plane!

While contemplating all of that, I'll fire off a baker's dozen thoughts about baseball at the break ...

1. Smart GMs of losing teams will do what Kenny Williams did last year (in acquiring Alex Rios) and add talented players for future seasons. It's one thing to throw away one bad season; why let it ruin an entire decade?

2. Aramis Ramirez, Faux Mr. Clutch, is at it again. Now that his Cubs are hopelessly out of the race - and with him having the right to opt out of his contract at season's end - he finally is hitting the way a cleanup hitter making monster money should. He did the same thing in 2006, getting hot just in time to get himself a huge new deal but not in time to keep Dusty Baker from getting fired.

3. It will be interesting to see which NL Central frontrunner, Cincinnati or St. Louis, will overcome major bullpen issues to take the division. Reds GM Walt Jocketty would love nothing more than to add a couple of the same quality arms the Cards no doubt want. Jocketty was great at making deadline deals before he was run out of St. Louis. Meanwhile, in the always-entertaining game within the games, it's Dusty vs. Tony - just as it was in '03 (with Dusty prevailing) and '04 (with Tony dominating).

4. The most overrated player in baseball in the season's first half: Joe Mauer in a landslide. The Twins can't afford to have their highest-paid player ever hit like Brian Harper.

5. If they can get reasonably healthy by mid-August and if they can hang close in the race, the Phillies will win the NL East again.

6. "This time it counts"? Yeah, but not in the ratings. Sorry, Bud, it's still an exhibition game. That's what happens when nearly 10 percent of the league's players are deemed All-Stars. It's pro sports. Everybody doesn't need to win a trophy.

7. The Padres authored the best story of the first half and I gotta admit that I'm rooting for them to hold on. It's pretty cool that even as management tries like hell to lose, the players just won't let it happen.

8. The Pirates should have to move out of PNC Park until they have a winning season. No team that bad should get to play in such a cool ballpark.

9. Ditto for the Orioles regarding Camden Yards.

10. Is it still Milton Bradley's fault that the Cubs suck?

11. Fear the Rockies.

12. Stephen Strasburg is the most-hyped 6-inning pitcher ever. Or at least since Greg Maddux returned to the Cubs in 2004. (And speaking of hyped, remember when Maddux was going to help teach Cra-Z Zambrano how to be more professional?)

13. Predicted playoff teams: Yankees, White Sox, Rangers, Rays (wild card), Phillies, Cardinals, Rockies, Dodgers (wild card). One more prediction: This is Lou Piniella's last season in Cubbieland but Jim Hendry will be around for one more try in 2011. For better or worse on both accounts.

Minny's ballpark pleases, Joe Mauer teases

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Very impressed with Target Field. Less impressed with Joe Millionaire.

Almost 16 years after I wrapped up my career as Minnesota's AP sports guy, I made my first visit to the Twins' new ballpark. My impression - and this is the ultimate compliment - it looks and feels like a ballpark. (It's not Target Field's fault that the fans do the wave.)

It isn't as busy and/or kitchy as the ballparks in Cincinnati, Texas, San Francisco, Houston, Arizona and Detroit are. It doesn't have stacks of luxury suites, as Cleveland's does. It is far more intimate than both New York ballparks, as well as those in St. Louis, Philly, Washington, Milwaukee, Seattle, Colorado and Toronto. It has a beautiful view of downtown, unlike the poorly aligned park on the South Side.

Target Field is on the short list of best newer big-league ballparks, right there with San Diego's and a tick behind the modern miracles in Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Now if only Carl Pohlad had put a retractable dome on the place for those frigid days to come instead of insisting upon being buried with his billions.

As for Joe Mauer ...

Obviously, the man is talented. Handsome, trustworthy, loyal and a great dancer, too.

But shouldn't a $184 million ballplayer have more than warning-track power? I mean, did the Twins know they had the catcher version of Mark Grace when they gave him that deal?

Yes, Mauer is batting .300. It's a soft, soft, squeezably soft .300. It's the Charmin of .300 averages.

He came up in the first inning Monday with runners on the corners and nobody out and hit a sacrifice fly. Hey, that's OK. An RBI is an RBI.

Nearly midway through the season, it was RBI No. 34 for Joe Millionaire.

He also has 3 homers. And a .430 slugging percentage.

Toronto catcher John Buck: 13 HR, 40 RBI, .530 SLUG. All in nearly 50 fewer at-bats.

So step it up, Joe. Or Pohlad will reach out of his grave and yank back $182 million of that moolah.

And even rarer than a new ballpark opening ...

I got to see Jim Thome hit a triple. First one in six years for the Pride of Peoria. He also homered - No. 571 on his career - and drove in a pair.

The man can still hit and still has value, so why retire? The Hall will have to wait.

The Quote

The Minneapolis Star Tribune has been looking back at memorable moments in Twins history, and Monday's featured the 1984 late-season meltdown in Cleveland. The young Twinkies, surprising contenders in the AL West, led the Indians 10-0 but went on to lose 11-10 and were eliminated from the race. On one key play, third baseman Gary Gaetti fielded a grounder but misfired to first base.

Asked afterward about the play, Gaetti delivered one of the 5 greatest quotes in sports history:

"It's hard to throw when you have both hands around your neck."