Mike's Oscar Picks: Everybody else takes a whack, so why not me?

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I haven't seen Little Women, and I won't get a chance to see it today before the Oscars telecast. So as I look at the nominees for Best Picture, 8 out of 9 will have to do.

I also haven't seen several of the films featuring actresses/actors who were nominated for individual awards, though I do look forward to watching them as they become available on Amazon, Hulu, HBO, Showtime and the like.

So having delivered that disclaimer, here are my Oscar picks ...

Best Actress

It sounds like Renee Zellweger is a shoo-in for her portrayal of Judy Garland in Judy, and I definitely want to see that film. 

The only nominated actress whose movie I saw was Scarlett Johansson's Marriage Story. She was good, but I can hardly say it was a groundbreaking performance. 

I was disappointed that Ana de Armas, the young actress who shined in the underrated Knives Out, didn't get nominated.

Best Actor

I saw three of the five films in which an actor was nominated: Joker (Joaquin Phoenix), Marriage Story (Adam Driver), and Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood (Leonardo DiCaprio). 

Each was outstanding, but Phoenix, always a powerful force whenever he's on screen, was never better. He is expected to win, and I'm not surprised.

Adam Sandler was surprisingly good in Uncut Gems and George McKay great in 1917. Also, Roman Griffin Davis dominated nearly every scene as the 10-year-old protagonist in Jojo Rabbit. Each was snubbed, but I obviously realize that everybody can't get nominated.

Best Supporting Actress

I saw two of the five films with actresses in this category: Marriage Story (Laura Dern) and Jojo Rabbit (Scarlett Johansson).

The belief is that Dern will win here and I have no problem with that. It was a perfect role for her, and she clearly enjoyed doing it. Johansson also was very good.

I thought Julia Fox, making her acting debut as Sandler's love interest in Uncut Gems, might get nominated but she didn't.

Best Supporting Actor

My would-be favorite for this category wasn't nominated: Daniel Craig as the brilliant but quirky detective in Knives Out. Nobody will ever convince me that he wasn't significantly better than the two guys nominated from The Irishman: the OK Al Pacino and the underwhelming Joe Pesci.

I really liked Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood (and he also was very good in, though not nominated for, Ford v Ferrari), so I'll be rooting for him. Based on what I've read, he has a decent shot at the trophy.

Best Picture

As I said, I didn't see Little Women. Two films I did see that I very much liked but weren't nominated: Knives Out and Uncut Gems. 

I preferred the latter two to The Irishman. I think I could have edited an hour out of it, I wasn't blown away by either the story or the acting, and if it had been directed by anybody other than Scorcese it probably wouldn't have been nominated. It was Goodfellas Lite - all of the blood, none of the fun.

The other Netflix nominee, Marriage Story, felt like a good made-for-TV movie. Like Ford v Ferrari, I liked it but it didn't seem Oscar-worthy. 

Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood was a good Quentin Tarantino flick ... but not a great one in my estimation. It ranks well behind Pulp Fiction, Inglorious Basterds, Kill Bill, Reservoir Dogs, Jackie Brown and Django Unchained.

Joaquin Phoenix was so good in Joker that he personally elevated the film, and at the time I saw it I thought it was the best 2019 movie I had seen. It since has been surpassed by a few others in my mind, but I wouldn't be disappointed if it does get picked.

The South Korean black comedy Parasite is a wonderful and sneaky-deep film that is hilarious in parts, grisly in others, and socially relevant throughout. Several of the actors could have been nominated (but weren't). I didn't see it until yesterday - the day before the Oscars - but I can see why it has gotten so much buzz.

Jojo Rabbit was my personal favorite of 2019 - the one I enjoyed most during my time in the theater. I don't think it has a prayer of winning, but it was an absolute delight from beginning to end. If you haven't seen it, do.

Although I expected World War I drama 1917 to be very good because it had gotten so much positive press before I finally got around to seeing it, it actually surpassed my expectations. One thing I went in thinking was, "Who needs another war movie?" As it turns out, I did! 1917 was not just another war movie. There actually was much less blood and guts than in most of them, the plot and premise were great, it was beautifully filmed, and the performances were superb throughout. Bravo to Sam Mendes for creating a borderline masterpiece. 

So while I might give Jojo Rabbit the "Mikey," 1917 was my fave of all the films that actually have a chance to win.
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Bald bits about Oscar flicks

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My wife and I just got home after a great vacation that included a 5-day Caribbean cruise followed by 2 nights in Delray Beach, Fla. So relaxing, such great weather ... and so much food. I am NOT looking forward to stepping on the scale!

I am looking forward to Sunday night's Oscars. I'm sure that Ellen DeGeneres will do a great job hosting the telecast -- and that a deserving film will win Best Picture.

On the last night of our vacation, Robbie and I saw Philomena, so I've now seen all nine nominated films. I'll give my ranking in a minute, but first a few thoughts about others awards:

Best Actor: I loved Bruce Dern (Nebraska) and Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), but Matthew McConaughey gave a performance of a lifetime in Dallas Buyers Club.

Best Actress: I did not see Blue Jasmine and that's too bad because just about every pundit out there says Cate Blanchett is a shoo-in. I saw the four films featuring the other nominees, and I'd rank Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) just ahead of Judi Dench (Philomena).

Best Supporting Actor: Four great candidates -- sorry, Jonah Hill, you'd be the one on Sesame Street's "one of these men just doesn't belong here" -- and my favorite performance was that of Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) as the leader of the Somali pirates who kidnapped Tom Hanks' character. Incredible to think that he wasn't even an actor before shooting started on the film. Most critics think Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) will win it, and it would be impossible to argue that choice.

Best Supporting Actress: Again, because I didn't see Blue Jasmine, I can't rate Sally Hawkins. I really liked the work of each of the other four. I laughed almost every time June Squibb (Nebraska) opened her mouth, but Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) had the most meaty role of all the nominees and was absolutely fantastic.

Now, here is where I rank each of the nine Best Picture nominees ...

9. The Wolf of Wall Street. I liked several films that weren't nominated more than this overly long, over-the-top silliness. Lots of critics liked it, but I didn't think it was one of Martin Scorsese's best.

8. Gravity. I almost feel like apologizing for liking this movie so much less than most experts do. I mean, I didn't hate it, and Sandra Bullock was fine as usual, but I was not wowed by either the special effects or the story. If it were a college basketball team, I'd be taunting it with chants of "Over-rated! Over-rated!"

7. Her. Quirky and interesting, with Joaquin Phoenix deserving of the Comeback of the Year award, if there was one.

6. Philomena. A well-written, well-acted film about an important but rarely discussed topic. Kudos to Steve Coogan, who adapted the screenplay and starred alongside the excellent Judi Dench.

5. Captain Phillips. Just as I was surprised I liked Gravity less than I thought I would, I was surprised that I liked this film more than I thought I would. It was a completely believable, edge-of-the-seat flick with outstanding acting by the two leads.

4. Dallas Buyers Club. Here's where it starts to get especially difficult for me, which is how it should be in trying to separate the Final Four. This film was superbly acted and presented, and I've got nothing bad to say about it.

3. American Hustle. I smiled or laughed throughout the entire movie and I thought Christian Bale was wonderful in leading a talented ensemble cast. It was a little goofy at times, but I know that was intentional.

2. Nebraska. As I watched this quiet gem of a film unfold, all I kept thinking was, "This is my favorite movie this year." Bruce Dern was absolutely perfect in the lead role and June Squibb was a hoot as his wife. It was beautifully filmed in black and white, and the entire production was top-notch and moving. I know it has little chance to win because it was not a "big" enough flick, but I enjoyed it tremendously.

1. 12 Years a Slave. A powerful, important story that was exquisitely presented by director Steve McQueen. Often brutal and difficult to watch, it nonetheless was filled with astounding performances, especially by Chiwetel Ejiofor, Lupita Nyong'o and the boo-and-hiss-worthy Michael Fassbender. This is the kind of film academy voters often favor -- and for good reason.

+++

I'm just now realizing that while I posted the final results of my basketball season on Facebook, I didn't here for my loyal tens of readers.

My Scholars Academy Eagles lost our semifinal game to a bigger, more experienced, and ... well ... superior team but I so enjoyed my first season as a head coach. The girls worked incredibly hard and played with such passion, the parents were wonderful, the administration was supportive. It was just a great experience, even better than I hoped it would be.

I'll probably write more about it after our team party on Friday.
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Billy Crystal perfect, as was The Artist

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The Bald Truth

Billy Crystal, where have you been?

That single change back to the best Oscars host of the post-Bob Hope era made an otherwise anticlimactic event worth watching again.

Maybe he should moderate the next GOP debate?

The Balder Truth

After their 12th win in a 13-game stretch, my Marquette Golden Warriors have moved up to No. 7 in the coaches' poll and No. 8 in the AP writers' poll.

Sure is nice of the only team I root for to make it so easy for me to root for them!

If you have yet to see their do-everything stud forward, Jae Crowder, be sure to check him out. He's probably the best college basketball player most of America hasn't heard of.

THE BALDEST TRUTH

Spurred on by the Oscars, I finally checked out The Artist today.

A brilliant concept superbly executed. A most deserving Best Film choice.

I usually make it a point to see all the Best Film nominees but I only saw 4 of 9 this time: Moneyball, The Descendants, The Help and now The Artist.

Hugo now is a must rental for me, and I'll probably check out Midnight in Paris, too.

As was the case with the other three contenders I saw, however, I can't imagine those two matching The Artist.

Bravo to the academy for getting it right this time.

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Few surprises at Oscars, but here's 5

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Pretty anticlimactic Oscar night, huh? The King's Speech wasn't my favorite film of the year (The Kids Are All Right was), but it was good. And it certainly was the classic film for the Academy to be ga-ga about: historically significant, wonderfully acted and British. So that it won best picture was no surprise at all -- keeping with the night's theme.

The 5 Oscar surprises, according to this observer:

5. Geoffrey Rush -- the single best part about The King's Speech -- was one of the few nominees associated with the film who somehow managed not to win.

4. I didn't expect James Franco to be Billy Crystal or Jon Stewart, but I did expect him to read cue cards without seeming petrified and/or disinterested. I can't remember a less engaging host. Of course, the writers did him and co-host Anne Hathaway no favors at all. Aside from Franco's Charlie Sheen joke (while dressed in drag), the hosts were given precious little to work with.

3. Scarlett Johansson's hairdresser did the impossible: make her look less than beautiful.

2. Melissa Leo barely blinked after casually dropping the f-bomb. There goes her invitation to appear on Sesame Street.

1. The main highlights were provided by 94-year-old stroke victim Kirk Douglas (incredibly charming as presenter of best supporting actress) and a chorus of Staten Island 5th graders (wrapping up the proceedings with "Somewhere Over the Rainbow") . Gotta admit: I didn't see those coming.
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Hot in Charlotte ... and in Blue Valentine!

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70 and sunny in Charlotte today! I miss lots about Chicago, but the weather ain't one of them!

On another note ...

I mentioned in yesterday's post that Roberta and I saw Blue Valentine. Though the movie is more than a little depressing as it chronicles a couple falling out of love, it is powerful. The acting, with Michelle Williams and Ryan Goslin in the lead roles, is top-notch. It's not anywhere near my Oscar choice, but it's still worth seeing ... with a disclaimer:

If you are even a little prudish or the least bit uncomfortable seeing naked bodies grinding on the big screen, this is not the flick for you.

The sex scenes were intense and graphic. The soft-core porn HBO shows late on weekend nights (from what I hear) leaves more to the imagination than Blue Valentine's many sex scenes.

There. You've been forewarned. Now, did I mention that I wore shorts and a t-shirt on the long walk Roberta and I took today? Nice!
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Blindsided at the Oscars

At first, I thought it was just some bad leftover pizza ... but I soon realized it was all of those speeches made by the pals of the best actor and actress nominees that made me feel a little ill.

Yeah, we get it. Every nominated actor and actress not only is a wonderful performer but also a paragon of virtue. Just like everybody else in Hollywood.

OK, I will admit I kind of liked Tim Robbins' spiel about Morgan Freeman - because it played on Freeman's fallibility.

And then I had to get sick all over again when Sandra Bullock won the Oscar for an over-the-top performance in a mediocre film. I mean, The Blind Side wasn't even one of the three best sports movies of 2009.

Oh, and remember the olden days ... you know, when Steve Martin was actually funny?

Pass the Tums, please.

Bald Oscar Truths

It used to be enough trouble to go see all five movies nominated for Oscars and now they've doubled the candidates. Jeesh. Do I look like I'm made of stale popcorn?

It's like the NHL playoffs used to be in the '80s, when 16 of the 21 teams qualified. I mean, pretty much every film has been nominated for something this year except ... well ... the film I liked best in 2009:

Big Fan. (Rent it today if you haven't seen it already. Really.)

Oh well. I did see all 10 candidates and lots of other movies, too. So without further ado, here are this year's bald Oscar choices. (Remember, these are not predictions. These are the winners this regular-guy movie fan would pick. In other words, these are the right choices!)

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart.

In a rout. This is so one-sided, it's like LeBron when he was in high school.

BEST ACTRESS

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious.

I saw four of the five candidates and liked three very much. Didn't see Meryl Streep but assume she was good, as always. And I laugh that Sandra Bullock actually was nominated for The Blind Side. Sidibe had the most complex role and pulled it off beautifully.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

No choice.

I didn't see the majority of the candidates - but I did like both Christopher Plummer in The Last Station and Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds, for what it's worth.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mo'Nique, Precious.

She dominated every moment she was on the screen. Maggie Gyllenhaal is an Oscar-worthy actress? Really? What are they gonna try to get us to believe next ... that she's Batman's girlfriend or something?

BEST PICTURE

First, let's eliminate the five films that had no business being nominated, thereby bringing the number to the traditional five: The Blind Side, Up, District 9, An Education, Up in the Air.

There. That wasn't too difficult. I actually enjoyed all five of those to various degrees, but they simply weren't as good as the remaining five.

The countdown ...

5. The Hurt Locker. Many friends of mine didn't really like this movie but I found it riveting, original and well written.

4. A Serious Man. The Coen brothers make a funny/sad film about a Jewish shlub. Oy, that's entertainment.

3. Avatar. You know it's not really sci-fi if my wife dug it even more than I did. 3D is back, baby!

2. Precious. The acting was perfect and the story was gripping. Frankly, we need more movies like this.

And my Best Picture Oscar goes to ...

Inglorious Basterds.

Let me tell you, I went into the theater with great trepidation because the plot I'd heard about seemed, well, stupid. But of the 10 nominated flicks, there wasn't one I enjoyed from beginning to end more than this Tarantino romp.

Raunchy, crazy, vile, goofy, memorable and fun. And, as a bonus, Nazis get tortured throughout. Hey, what's not to like?

Of Oscar errors, stupid rules and Joe the Twin

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The List

Ten random observations from the weekend that was:

1. Not rooting for the Twins to beat the White Sox (or for the White Sox to beat the Twins, for that matter), but I hope good guy Joe Crede has a healthy, productive season for his new ballclub. 

2. To the press-conference inquisitor who got Jim Calhoun all hot and bothered: Successful major-sport college coaches deserve every penny they are paid. Nobody at any university - and that includes the school president - works harder or faces more scrutiny than the head basketball or football coach.

3.  Interviewing is easy if one can do it in the setting in which Baba Wawa always gets to ask questions - one-on-one with the subject, with the camera rolling and with millions of viewers watching (or about to watch). She'd impress me a lot more if she got anything substantive out of an angry jock in the corner of a crowded locker room.

4. Late in Sunday's Bulls-Pacers game, Stacey King identified 17 games the Bulls "should" win before season's end (including Sunday's contest). His team promptly lost. Hey Stacey: The Lakers or Celtics are good enough to say they should win a game; the Bulls aren't. Fact is, opposing teams - including the Pacers - think they should beat the Bulls every time.

5. As outstanding as Sean Penn was in Milk, even he gave a shout-out to deserving Best Actor winner Mickey Rourke. I'd like to thank the Academy ... for missing the obvious.

6. Rutgers receiver Kevin Britt told reporters at the NFL Combine that he wants to be drafted by the Bears so Devin Hester can be his "mentor." That's a good one. Were Britt at receiver for the Bears, he'd have to tell Hester where to line up on half the plays.

7. Wow ... 70 points for the Illini. Just like a big-boy team!

8. Not a single day will go by in 2009 without one of the New York papers coming up with some dirt on A-Roid.

9. Smart of Phil Mickelson to squeeze in a victory before Tiger returns to the tour.

10. The Bulls have told all recent acquisitions that they're still enforcing their no-headband mandate. Brilliant rule! Very important to a team's success! Thank goodness they won't let a headband-wearing loser like LeBron join the team when he becomes a free agent next year.

It's Slumdog vs. four wannabes

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Here's how I handicap the race: Slumdog Millionaire vs. four films that barely merited spots in Oscar's starting gate.

In other words, Secretariat vs. The Field. 

It's that lopsided ... or at least it should be.

Of the five films nominated - the others being The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Reader, Frost/Nixon and Milk - only Slumdog exceeded the considerable hype surrounding it.

A brilliant concept executed brilliantly on the screen, which is the very definition of a great movie.

Ben Button? Zzzzzzz. I could have edited out 45 minutes. The Reader? Kate Winslet was so good she almost saved it. Nixon was fun, but aside from Frank Langella as Tricky Dick, the acting wasn't noteworthy. Milk was a nice biopic - and nice shouldn't be good enough to win an Oscar, especially when up against something as grand as Slumdog.

I'm a little sad - only a little, because it's only the movies - that four of the five best flicks I saw weren't nominated.

The Wrestler was my favorite, full of great acting and funny scenes and emotion. Doubt, the superbly acted movie about a priest gone bad (we think), was a superior drama to The Reader. In Bruges, a hilarious buddy/caper movie, was as enjoyable as anything to hit the screen. And Let the Right One In, a charming Swedish film about a 12-year-old vampire girl - that's right: I said charming, Swedish, 12-year-old, vampire and girl in the same sentence - was an absolute delight.

Heck, if you throw in Man On Wire, The Dark Knight and Wall-E - and you certainly could - that would be seven films better than the four non-Slumdog entries.

So it really is hard to fathom Slumdog not winning a deserving Oscar. I mean, Secretariat didn't break his leg down the homestretch of the Belmont.

+++++

As for some of the other main categories ...

ACTOR (Richard Jenkins,  Frank Langella, Sean Penn, Brad Pitt, Mickey Rourke):

Aside from Pitt, any of them are deserving. Langella absolutely nailed Nixon, Penn was as solid as ever and Jenkins was special in The Visitor. Still, I'm pulling for Rourke, who took a wonderful role and made The Wrester memorable.

ACTRESS (Anne Hathaway, Angelina Jolie, Melissa Leo, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet):

I didn't see three of the films, but the majority of experts seem to be siding with Winslet, who was excellent. In a head-to-head matchup, though, I'd go with Streep, who as the pushy, old-school nun in Doubt kicked Philip Seymour Hoffman's priestly butt.

SUPPORTING ACTOR (Josh Brolin, Robert Downey Jr., Philip Seymour Hoffman, Heath Ledger, Michael Shannon):

Everybody says Ledger should and will win. Everybody is right.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Amy Adams, Penelope Cruz, Viola Davis, Taraji Henson, Marisa Tomei): 

As good as Tomei was during her "hey, I'm still around" turn in The Wrestler, this actually happened: After Davis finished her amazing, powerful, 12-minute scene with Streep in Doubt, I turned to my wife and whispered: "Wow. She should win the Oscar." Nothing has happened to change my mind. 

And last but not least ... 

SPORTS FLICK

The Cubs' thorough incompetence during their second straight postseason collapse was so incredibly realistic ...

But no 97-win team could have been so completely inept on the big stage, right?