Mortal Lock for NCAA title: Either Kentucky or UConn!

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Well, I've embarrassed myself enough trying to make tournament picks, so I'll just slink away from basketball prognosticating for now!

Still, I do love the NCAA tournament. I love it when everybody is wrong, even when one of those everybodies is me. It is the one sporting event that never, ever disappoints -- and this year's tourney has been one of the best ever.

Funny that Kentucky and UConn, two of the most successful, big-time, big-name programs of the post-Wooden Era, have become underdog darlings, no?

Obviously, I wish Marquette had been one of the two darlings remaining, but we Warrior Eagle fans got our surprise a few weeks ago when Buzz Williams took less money to take an inferior coaching job, at Virginia Tech. There's way more to this story than we've been told, because that kind of thing simply doesn't happen.

Buzz gave us five excellent seasons (and one not-so-excellent season) and was an improvement on his predecessor, Tom Crean. And now I'm hoping our new guy, ex-Dookie Steve Wojciechowski, is an improvement over Buzz.

Awww ... who am I kidding. I'm just hoping I don't have to spell Wojciechowski too often! Let's go with "Wojo" from now on, OK?

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Finally, appropos of nothing, I received a bit of an honor a few days ago when a highly respected Seeking Alpha writer named me one of the 25 best authors on the financial Web site.

I'm not gonna lie: It's always nice to have folks say nice things about you!
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Here's a Shocker: 40-and-oh!

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My NCAA tournament bracket is already garbage.

What? I can't possibly be the only one who had Mount St. Mary's going all the way!

Yeah, I know. With me, the hilarity never ends. So who really is going to win?

I'm going with the one team that just about nobody is picking, the one team that also happens to have not lost a single game this season.

Yep, Wichita State.

How 'Bout Some Love?

It's weird that a 34-0 team -- a team that has had only a few close calls all season long -- could be such an underdog. Most Vegas casinos have the Shockers' odds of winning it all at 12-1 or higher, behind No. 4 seeds Louisville and Michigan State.

All five of ESPN's main "experts" -- Dickie, Digger, Seth Greenberg and Jays Bilas and Williams -- picked Michigan State to win the title. And none of the five even has Wichita State reaching the Final Four. Wow.

Two Sports Illustrated basketball gurus (Seth Davis, Luke Winn) have the Shockers getting to the Final Four but neither they nor SI's other pundits (Brian Hamilton, Pete Thamel) have Wichita State winning the title.

The only two prognosticators I could find who agree with me that Wichita State will go on to be the first unbeaten champs since Bobby Knight's '76 Hoosiers are both from CBSSports.com: Gary Parrish and Wally Szczerbiak.

It reminds me of the lack of respect folks had for Larry Bird's 1979 Indiana State team. Of course, that team -- unlike this year's Wichita State squad -- didn't bring just about everybody back from a squad that went to the previous year's Final Four.

Gregg Marshall is still coaching the Shockers and will be the hottest name for every job opening this offseason. Fred VanVleet is still running the show, Cleanthony Early is still scoring from everywhere and Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton are still leading a deep, versatile supporting cast.

I mean, I know Wichita State is from the weak Missouri Valley Conference (as were Bird's Sycamores), but come on! Dismissing an unbeaten team is one thing. But dismissing one that has proven it knows how to win NCAA tournament games -- something few others in this field can claim -- seems outright dopey.

Shockers-Cardinals, Take 2

There is nothing easy about Wichita State's road to the Final Four. Just to make the Sweet 16, the Shockers will have to beat either Kentucky or Kansas State. Win that one and the next opponent figures to be Louisville, a favorite of many to repeat as champions.

Consider this, though: While Wichita State returns so many proven performers, Louisville no longer has three of its best players from last year's title run: Peyton Siva, Gorgui Dieng and Chane Behanen.

Wichita State led Louisville by 12 points with less than 14 minutes to play in last year's national semifinals before 'Ville rallied to win by 4. The Shockers were down 3 and had the ball with 6 seconds left when Luke Hancock tied up Baker for a controversial held-ball call. Louisville had the possession arrow and clinched the win on the free-throw line.

In other words, the teams were all but dead-even a year ago, when Louisville was better than it is today ... so it's not exactly far-fetched to give Wichita State a puncher's chance against the Cardinals this time.

After beating 'Ville, Wichita State will dispatch Duke for the Midwest Regional title and Final Four berth. Maybe then, at 38-0, the Shockers will be taken more seriously.

The Rest of the Final Four Field

Also making it to Dallas on the first weekend of April: Florida, Iowa State and Creighton.

Florida is the easy pick. The Gators are well-coached, supremely talented and playing well going into the tournament. Kansas certainly is talented enough to beat them in the South Regional final, but Florida is more likely to make the big play with the game on the line. Florida also is less likely to get upset in an earlier round.

Virginia is a No. 1 seed that won both the ACC regular-season and tournament titles, yet the Cavs are getting only a little more love than the Shockers are. I guess if it's not Duke or Carolina, it's not really a representative ACC team.

Practically everybody is saying Michigan State, not Virginia, will emerge from the top half of the East bracket ... which pretty much means I have to pick the Cavs to take down Sparty. In the regional final, though, I've got Fred Hoiberg's entertaining and talented Iowa State Cyclones beating Virginia.

Creighton has the best offensive player in the country, Doug McDermott, who can score from 30 feet, 3 feet and everywhere in between. He is surrounded by great shooters -- the Bluejays led the nation in 3-point percentage (.421) and also were No. 5 nationally in 2-point percentage and No. 16 in free-throw shooting. If the Bluejays enjoy a period of sustained excellence from behind the arc, they can beat anybody anywhere.

They will meet Wisconsin to get to the Elite Eight. The teams are similar but Creighton is better -- and has McDermott. In the regional final, Arizona would be an extremely difficult opponent, but I'm thinking that either Oklahoma State or San Diego State will keep the Wildcats from getting that far.

40-0? Why Not?

So that's two No. 3 seeds (Creighton and Iowa State) and two No. 1s (Florida and Wichita State) in the Final Four.

Florida is too good for Iowa State and Wichita State is too well-rounded for Creighton, which finally runs out of 3-point bullets.

And in the title game ...

Well, Wichita State has beaten everybody -- including 99.5% of the experts -- to get this far.

So why not beat Florida, too?

Forty-and-oh. It has a hell of a nice ring to it.
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Three great days following Marquette (plus, a not-so-great one)

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For Roberta and me, being spontaneous usually means deciding at the last minute to go grab wings and a couple of beers somewhere.

Last week, it meant driving to Washington, D.C. to watch our beloved Marquette Golden Warriors play in the NCAA tournament. We've been MU fans our entire adult lives and had never done anything like that.

It was about time.

We made the 7-hour drive from Charlotte and checked into our hotel, the Renaissance downtown. As a Marriott Platinum guest, I usually get upgraded to a better room if one is available. This time, we got upgraded into a suite on the 11th floor with a huge living room, a kitchenette, an incredible bathroom, two large flatscreen HDTVs, plush bathrobes and a veranda overlooking the city.

Pretty sweet, huh? This incredible room was a sign that it was going to be a very good night!

After a pregame nosh in the club-level lounge, we hiked to the Verizon Center. The following picture was taken about 20 minutes before Thursday's opening tip.

Miami was favored by 5, so I knew my lads would have to play superbly to win. And they delivered  probably their best all-around game of the season. Marquette got up early and never let up. We led by 20-some points until Miami scored a few meaningless garbage-time hoops. Jamil Wilson, Vander Blue, Davante Gardner, Chris Otule, Trent Lockett, Junior Cadougan, coach Buzz Williams ... all of them were too much for Miami to handle.

WE ARE ... MARQUETTE!!

After the wonderful triumph, we stuck around to watch Syracuse destroy Indiana in the second game of the evening. This result meant that Marquette had gone farther in the tournament than the coach who had abandoned us, Tom Crean, as well as hated archrivals Notre Dame and Wisconsin, each of whom had suffered humiliating first-round losses. We also went deeper into the tournament than anyone else from the new Big East (which is breaking off from the football schools starting this summer).

Then it came time to buy tickets for Saturday's regional final. We hung out near the exit hoping to find an Indiana fan who wanted to unload his tickets. Unfortunately, about a dozen scalpers were out there looking for the same thing. They were pros and were very aggressive. We had just about given up hope of buying the tickets there when an Indiana fan who had bypassed the scalpers heard Roberta say: "Marquette fans looking for two tickets we can use, not resell!" The guy says, "Oh, I like Marquette. I have two." He let us have the upper-deck tickets for $60 apiece, 40 bucks below face value. A great capper for a perfect night!

We spent most of Friday with my nephew Russ and niece Fran in the suburbs, including a lovely walk through Alexandria. Here we are at the waterfront there.

That night, we stayed with my cousin Steve and his wife Peggy in Silver Spring, Maryland. Whenever I go on the road like this, I try to catch up with relatives and friends I don't get to see very often.

The next afternoon, we headed back into Washington by subway, went to the Marquette pregame reception to act totally like goofy fans and then walked about 2 miles to the arena. It was a beautiful afternoon, and we ran into another Marquette couple along the way. They had made an even more last-minute decision than we had, taking the bus that morning from New York.

Then came the game. I won't go into that much here except to say that neither team could make a shot until Syracuse broke open a tight, low-scoring game midway through the second half. Blue started Marquette's scoring with a 3-pointer and Gardner ended the night with another trey. Between those two makes, MU missed 21 of 22 shots from behind the arc. My daughter Katie's high school team used to shoot better. But hey, these things happen. Syracuse totally deserved to win.

We left the arena and were in no mood to go to any of the surrounding bars, which were flooded with Syracuse fans. We had heard of a place frequented by the local Marquette alumni chapter and after almost getting lost, another Marquette couple on their way to the establishment guided us. We enjoyed drinks and a sandwich with our new best friends, Amy and Mitch, talking about our favorite moments from a season that was significantly better than I had expected it would be.

Marquette was picked to finish seventh in the preseason coach's poll. I thought we'd be fortunate to go 9-9 in the conference and sneak into the NCAAs. Instead, Buzz's Boyzz went 14-4 to grab a share of the league title. After a near-miraculous opening victory over vastly underrated Davidson and a great comeback win over Butler to make the Sweet 16, we took care of business against Miami. It was a great ride.

We drove home Sunday, unpacked our things and went to our dogsitter to pick up Simmie, who was thrilled to see her humans again. Then, after much carrying on, our exhausted girl did what she does best: curl up into a tight ball and chill!

So that was our fun, by-the-seat-of-our-pants weekend.

Was it worth it?

Well, we got to see an impressive victory that put Marquette in the Elite Eight for the first time in a decade, got to see Indiana lose, got to see several people we love, got to stay in an awesome hotel suite, got to visit a cool city, got to commune with fellow Marquetters and got to spend lots of quality time together.

Was it worth it? Damn right it was!

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Neil Reed: ruined forever and ever by Bobby Knight

If you were known for only one thing in your entire life, how would you like that one thing to be this:

You were bullied by somebody famous.

That was the fate of Neil Reed, who back in 1997 foolishly put his throat in the way of Bobby Knight's vice-like grip.

Even though Knight was a bellicose boor -- and, by the late-90s, an out-of-touch geezer who had stopped winning NCAA tournament games as he ran a once-proud program into the ground -- many fans/apologists/lemmings never forgave Reed for his role in Knight's exodus from Hoosierland.

The incident, caught on tape that clearly showed Knight throttling the young basketball player, led to Bobby being put on double-secret probation by Miles "Dean Wormer" Brand. Another incident soon followed (of course), and Knight was sent packing.

Ridiculously -- but predictably -- the bully was deified and the victim was vilified. This, of course, is typical behavior of blindly loyal college sports lemmings (see: Paterno Worshippers, Penn State University).

With the pitchfork-and-torch crowd closing in, Reed had to bolt Hoosierland and ended up at Southern Miss. He eventually became a high school coach and teacher.

Neil Reed died last week at 36 of heart complications. I'm guessing that thousands of Hoosierland sickos were happy when they heard the news.

His obituary in every newspaper in the country identified him as the player choked by Knight. That's who Neil Reed was -- not only until his dying days but for all eternity.

Bobby Knight not only ruined Reed's basketball career and Reed's life, the bully also ruined Neil Reed's death.

How sad is that?

Loyalty: Dead end for Weber & other coaches

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If college basketball success is measured by national championships, Illinois hasn't had a successful coach in the modern era. If, however, success is measured by Final Four appearances, Bruce Weber and Lou Henson have been the only successful coaches in the last six decades.

What else -- besides first names that, in good times, elicited "oooooo" sounds from fans -- do Henson and Weber have in common?

Ugly endings.

Despite a thrilling ride to the Final Four in '89, two other appearances in the tournament's second weekend and a dozen NCAA bids overall, Henson was run out of Urbana-Champaign by a pitchfork-and-torch-wielding mob that deemed him inadequate in his last few seasons.

Weber took the Illini to the 2005 NCAA title game and led them to six tourney bids in his first eight years. But Season No. 9 has been horrific and new AD Mike Thomas is ready to clean house -- much to the delight of a salivating, angry fanbase.

Contrast the departure of Henson and imminent departure of Weber to those of the two other Illinois coaches of the last 35 years: Lon Kruger and Bill Self.

Kruger hung around for only four years, leading the Illini to the second round of the NCAA tourney in three of those seasons, before bolting for the NBA's Atlanta Hawks.

Self stayed in Urbana-Champaign for just three seasons -- taking the Illini to the Elite Eight, Sweet Sixteen and second round -- before leaving for the college hoops nirvana of Lawrence, Kansas.

Self, who had said he envisioned a long career at Illinois, was ripped for being disloyal after he left. To this day, even though he recruited the outstanding players who helped Weber reach the '05 title game, S-E-L-F is a four-letter word in Illini Land.

Kruger was neither as popular nor quite as successful as Self, but he, too, was blasted for turning his back on the program.

Which brings us to the subject of loyalty.

Illinois fans are ticked off that Kruger and, especially, Self were disloyal. These same fans have had absolutely no problem being disloyal to Henson and Weber. Nor would those fans have worried about being disloyal to Kruger and Self had either of those men encountered a rough stretch.

I'm not saying this only happens in Urbana-Champaign. It happens everywhere, including my alma mater. I know Marquette fans whose blood still boils at the mere mention of Tom Crean, who left for Indiana four years ago. (My blood doesn't boil. I appreciated Crean for rebuilding the program but never thought he was a great coach, and I prefer his replacement, Buzz Williams.)

Point is: Fans are loyal only to the extent that their coach wins. Period.

Is that fair? Come on ... what is fair? It simply is.

Obviously, if Weber really could have had the Oklahoma job last year as had been rumored, he should have taken it.

To hell with loyalty.

It's far better to do what Self and Kruger did and beat the pitchforks and torches out of town, because loyalty is never a two-way street.

Like it or not, La Russa wins his way

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First, Scott Rolen.

Then, Jim Edmonds.

Now, Colby Rasmus.

And probably a few other guys I can't think of off the top of my head.

I don't want to say Tony La Russa can be a less-than-pleasant manager to play for, but ... OK, I guess I do want to say it.

He's not the best for media mopes, either. The one time I had a chance to observe him at length came in March 2008, when I covered a week of Cardinals spring training in Florida. The St. Louis press corps had to tiptoe around every topic, afraid to step on the eggshell that is Tony's massive, overly sensitive ego.

The beat guys from the Post-Dispatch managed to hang in there pretty well, but some of the others, including the local MLB.com guy, felt they had to ask questions in a certain way to avoid feeling the skipper's wrath.

"Um, Tony, we know you are the greatest manager ever and we'd never second-guess you for an instant, but could you please explain why you might consider batting Skip Schumacher leadoff ... "

OK, maybe it wasn't quite that bad, but you get my drift.

Even though La Russa had seen me around the ballpark for years, he really had no clue who I was. And he didn't particularly care. The third or fourth day I was there in Florida, it was a little chilly so I was wearing my Marquette pullover. La Russa mentioned he had become friendly with then-MU coach Tom Crean. This led to a 5-minute conversation between us and, for the rest of the week, Tony didn't get pissed at me just for asking routine questions.

All in all, though, I thought he was quite a jerk, and I wasn't the least bit surprised he was in the Bobby Knight-Bill Parcells circle of friends.

Then again, the Cardinals shouldn't care if the media or even the players like their manager. No matter the makeup of the roster, La Russa almost always keeps the team competitive.

One need not be a jerk to be a good manager -- as Joe Torre, Terry Francona, Bob Lemon and numerous others have proven -- but given the choice of a jerk who wins or a lovable lug who loses, any intelligent owner would take the former.

Even if it occasionally results in a good player taking a hike.
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Bobby Knight's last losing legacy

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Were coaching genius hereditary, James Wooden, Allie McGuire and Adolph Rupp II would be heralded throughout the land.

It isn't ... and they aren't.

Pat Knight isn't heralded, either. He's just another ex-coach, having been canned by Texas Tech after his Red Raiders compiled the second-worst record in the Big 12 during his three-year run.

Ten years ago, Bobby Knight came out of forced retirement to energize the Texas Tech program and put Lubbock on the map. Short term, the hire was a resounding success. Knight, truly one of the great coaching minds in sports history, worked wonders with the decent group of basketball players he inherited.

In his fourth season, the Red Raiders advanced to the Sweet Sixteen -- something his Hoosiers couldn't do in his final six stormy seasons at Indiana. Texas Tech fans, who had been apathetic for decades, turned out to games. ESPN even found Lubbock a few times.

Knight seemed to get bored, however, and the year after the Sweet Sixteen -- when his first full recruiting class was in -- the Red Raiders went 15-17. Two years later, his program flagging and attendance waning, he resigned midseason.

As part of his employment, he had arranged for Pat to take over when he stepped down. It turned out to be the coaching version of a fraternity legacy: an ill-equipped kid being invited to pledge only because his old man had been frat president.

Unlike Bobby, Pat actually is a reasonable fellow. There are no known cases of him having strangled players at practice or throwing chairs across the court. He handled his firing with class.

Unlike Bobby, Pat can't coach a lick.

His Red Raiders were rotten, and empty seats outnumbered filled ones at home games.

Maybe now he'll follow his pop to ESPN. There, he wouldn't have to do much to eclipse Bobby, who has trouble putting consecutive coherent sentences together.
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