Patriots goat Welker: The agony of the irony

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A month into the 1994 baseball season, I covered a no-hitter pitched by Twins enigma Scott Erickson. What made the feat especially amazing was that he had allowed the most hits in the major leagues the year before.

The most hittable pitcher in baseball throwing a no-hitter. It isn't easy to beat that for irony.

Well, Sunday night in a memorable Super Bowl, Wes Welker out-ironied Erickson.

From 2007-11, the Patriots' star receiver caught 554 passes, by far the most of any NFL player. In the season just concluded, he led the league with 122 catches -- 22 more than anybody else.

And yet there he was Sunday, with about 4 minutes to play, dropping a Tom Brady pass that hit him in the hands. NBC announcer Cris Collinsworth, a former All-Pro receiver, was stunned: "Welker makes that catch 100 times out of 100."

The catch would have given the Patriots a first down inside the Giants' 20-yard line. The Patriots already led by 2 points, so if they had proceeded to go in for a TD, it would have sealed the deal. Even if the Pats would have settled for a field goal, the Giants were down to one time out, there would have been precious little time left and a victory would have been difficult even for comeback king Eli Manning.

But Welker dropped the ball, the Patriots had to punt, and Manning, with plenty of time on the clock and needing only a field goal to take the lead, methodically marched the Giants to the winning score.

There were many things that did the Patriots in, including uncharacteristic penalties, an inability to run the ball and Brady being mortal.

Still, had the NFL's premier pass-catcher caught an eminently catchable pass, the Patriots almost surely would have won their fourth title.

Take that, Scott Erickson!

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It won't be a Giant upset

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The Giants appear to be better at just about every position -- even QB, given the way Eli Manning and Tom Brady have been playing lately. That leads many TV yakkers and other "experts" who should know better to wonder why the Patriots actually are favored.

Being favored has fairly little to do with which team the oddsmakers believe will win a game. Oddsmakers try to pick a number that will lead to the same number of bets on each team, plain and simple. If the Giants win, only a fool would call it an upset.

Now that I've wasted time, I guess I actually have to come up with a prediction.

I really, really, really hate picking against Brady and Bill Belichick. But I really, really think the Giants are a good team that is peaking at exactly the right time. The New Jerseyites' defense rates a huge edge over its Massachusetts counterpart, and defense still counts for something.

Giants 23, Patriots 20.

And they won't even need a guy to catch a pass with his helmet this time.

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Prediction: XLII rematch (sans David Tyree)

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The home team is 7-1 in the NFL playoffs. Even the Broncos, who deserved a playoff berth as much as I deserve to be the next president (not that I wouldn't do at least as well as today's incumbent and candidates) won their home playoff game.

The one road victor? The New York Giants, who did pretty much whatever they wanted in Green Bay last week.

The Giants are this year's version of the 2010 Packers and 2005 Steelers. Oh, and the 2007 Giants. Those teams quite arguably weren't the best in the NFL in those seasons, but they got hot at the right time and rolled to win championships.

These Giants have the same QB as the 2007 Giants, but Eli Manning is so much better now. In addition, they have been running the ball well and putting immense pressure on the opposing quarterback.

49ers QB Alex Smith showed a lot in last week's win against the Saints, but can he excel two weeks in a row against a defense that will relentlessly pursue him?

I'm answering "No" to that question and going with the hot QB, the on-fire team and the only club to have won a road game this postseason.

Giants 24, Niners 19.

In the AFC, I have a weakness: I can't pick against Tom Brady.

That worked fine 10 years ago but it certainly hasn't been an automatic recipe for success in recent seasons.

Oh well, fool me six times, shame on me.

Patriots 34, Ravens 17.

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Today's High 5: Brady beats Tebow ... the Devil made him do it!

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5. Remember how Tim Tebow passed for 316 yards (and averaged 31.6 yards per completion) in last week's upset of the Steelers, and his fellow ultra-believers quickly pointed out the religious significance of that total? You know, John 3:16 and all.

What a divine coincidence!

Well good news, kids: There were fun coincidences involving the performance of Tebow and his Broncos this weekend, too!

For example, Tebow passed for 136 yards. John 1:36 says: "And he looked at Jesus as He walked, and said, 'Behold, the Lamb of God!" That's all well and good, but there's a reason no sports teams are called the Lambs.

Denver lost 45-10 to the Patriots in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. That 35-point spread? Well, 3 + 5 = 8, and that's how many wives the Old Testament says David had. (Not sure what that has to do with football, but it's at least as meaningful a coincidence as the whole John 3:16 deal.)

Tom Brady had 6 touchdown passes. Touchdowns are worth 6 points. The lack of a Denver pass rush gave Brady 6 seconds in the pocket each time he went back to pass. 6-6-6! Obviously, Brady is the Devil's pawn!

I could go on, but that's enough biblical "coincidences" for one day, don't ya think?

4. This year's Giants remind me of last year's Packers. Good team getting better just when it matters most.

This year's Packers, meanwhile, remind me of, well, every other team that's been crowned far too early.

And to think, if the NFL ran things the way the NCAA does, the Packers would have been granted an automatic spot in the Super Bowl.

3. The Giants won despite getting royally hosed by the referee, who ignored overwhelming video evidence and refused to overturn a horrible no-fumble call.

Had that call been made correctly, the game probably would have been a rout.

2. It's only mid-January, but I'll be surprised if there is a more entertaining sporting event all year than the 49ers-Saints game.

1. I like Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, but they lost me when they wondered out loud if the two-week layoff had made Aaron Rodgers and the Packers rusty.

Please.

The Patriots, 49ers and Ravens also had two-week layoffs. They somehow managed to shake off the rust.

The Giants had something to do with Rodgers having a bad game. The fact that Green Bay receivers played as if they had anvils attached to their hands had something to do with Rodgers' poor performance, too.

Bottom line: The Giants outplayed the Packers in every phase. Give them credit. Don't give the Packers excuses.

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