Preparing for lots of time in my La-Z-Boy

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Gotta go meet some friends and realized I haven't yet prognosticated this fun NFL weekend, so here's a quickie:

Saints at 49ers: I know the Saints never win on the road in the playoffs, but I just can't shake the feeling that it's gonna come down to which QB executes the best in the fourth quarter. And I'm taking Drew Brees over Alex Smith. Saints 27, Niners 20.

Broncos at Patriots: The Pats don't play defense very well, so here's another chance for You Know Who to prove himself again. If it becomes a shootout, though, gotta go with the other You Know Who -- the one with the supermodel wife and the three Super Bowl rings. Patriots 35, Broncos 19.

Texans at Ravens: I'm trying to figure out a way to pick a huge upset. And I can't do it. Ravens 34, Texans 13.

Giants at Packers: This has stunner written all over it. The Giants are playing very well on both sides of the ball -- maybe they are this year's version of last year's Packers? Meanwhile, the Packers have just been chillin' for weeks. I'm putting lots of faith in Aaron Rodgers and the home-field advantage. Packers 24, Giants 22.

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NFL playoff predictions: Steel Curtain will be doing lots of Tebowing

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Can anybody beat the Packers in Green Bay? Of course. Even though a home playoff loss for the Pack would be surprising, it certainly wouldn't be unprecedented.

Just nine years ago, Atlanta -- a warm-weather, domed-stadium team -- went up to Green Bay and routed the Packers, who had gone 8-0 at home during the regular season.

So it would be silly to say a really good team like the Saints couldn't repeat such a feat this year.

But hey, I'm not quite ready to go there yet. Let's get Week 1 of the playoffs out of the way first ...

BENGALS at TEXANS

Gotta give credit to the Texans, who have had to use four QBs this season and who were missing their stud receiver for a good chunk of the campaign. Take THAT, all those (ahem, Bears) who love to use injuries as an excuse. Such sticktoitiveness deserves a nod in my predictions. Texans 20, Bengals 15.

LIONS at SAINTS

The Lions are fun to watch. They're a cool story, too, overcoming their recent history of utter ineptitude to put together a nice season. The Saints are even more fun to watch, however. They're also at home, where they hardly ever lose. Saints 37, Lions 21.

FALCONS at GIANTS

It's hard to figure the Giants, who can look very good or very bad -- often in the same quarter of the same game. The Falcons also had a season full of fits and starts, so this is a toughie to predict. One would think being at home would be a huge edge for the Giants, but Atlanta's road record (4-4) is the same as the Giants' home record. Let's pick a mild upset, then: Falcons 23, Giants 17.

STEELERS at BRONCOS

One of the quirks of NFL playoff scheduling is that a 12-4 team is forced to go on the road to face an 8-8 team that backed into the playoffs (because the 8-8 team won its division). A similar thing happened in the NFC last year, and the Seahawks stunned the Saints. Well, no such thing will happen this time. The Steelers won't lose a playoff game to the worst QB still standing. Steelers 27, Broncos 9.

Prediction: A Super Sunday Parity Party

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Whichever QB gets pounded less will win.

It says here that will be Aaron Rodgers, who also happens to be a significantly better QB than Jay Cutler.

Packers 17, Bears 13.

Also: Jets 20, Steelers 17. Why? Why not?

Two No. 6 seeds in the Super Bowl ... Pete Rozelle's dream finally will have come true.
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Arizona has the horses ... for now

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The List

Five random thoughts from the NFL conference championship game:

1. Yes! The Arizona Freakin' Cardinals! Just as most of us predicted back in September!

2. Were the Super Bowl a horse race, I'd start handicapping it by saying the Steelers represent a major move up in class for the Cardinals. Sure, Arizona has won $10,000 and $25,000 claimers and a nice $50,000 allowance. Let's see how the Cards do in a $1 million stakes race. The one advantage they have - super-accurate Kurt Warner throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin - figures to be counteracted by Pittsburgh's defense. Of course, I said the same about the Eagles' defense, which was whipped soundly and sent to the glue factory by the Cardinals.

3. By the time he is finished playing, Donovan McNabb will have Hall of Fame numbers. But after watching his Eagles lose another big one, it's difficult to make an argument that he's a Hall of Fame QB. He has gotten to the NFC title game five times and has only won it once, and he lost in the Super Bowl the one time he got there. In several of those mega-games, he had the ball in his hands late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win or tie and he hasn't gotten it done. Sunday, he again had a chance to pull out a big game. And he again misfired repeatedly on his team's final opportunity. I know the losses don't belong to him alone - where was the great Philly defense Sunday? - but fair or not, this is how the best QBs are judged.

4. Steelers WR Limas Sweed dropped a long touchdown pass that couldn't have been any more perfectly placed had Ben Roethlisberger run down field and handed Sweed the football. Sweed then fell to the ground and pretended to be hurt. (For a second there, I thought he was a soccer player.) Later in the game, he caught a 14-yard pass and acted as if he had just brokered peace in the Middle East. What a clown.

5. I'm not sure I could name the other nine right off the top of my hairless head, but Kurt Warner has to be one of the 10 great stories in modern team sports history.

By the by ...

Hope you noticed the new-look to The Baldest Truth - including the fact that comments now can be posted. Please keep it clean folks. And that goes double for you, Mr. and Mrs. Blago!

Nice thoughts and bald predictions

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The Bald Truth

I'm deeply touched by the letters I have received from so many readers - including many who never before had written me, such as Travis Truitt of Chicago:

Mike, As a longtime reader of yours, I just came across the bad news on your blog. I'm really sorry this has happened to you. I live in Chicago now, but I grew up in the Champaign area and started reading your columns in the News-Gazette. You are the only sportswriter my dad has ever really liked! For years, he called you "the bald guy from Chicago" before he finally learned your name. But you spoke a truth that appealed to him. I've never reached out to you before, but I figured if there was ever a moment to send a guy a piece of fan mail, this could be it. You're a talented sportswriter who speaks the truth in a clear and interesting way. You've made me laugh, and a few times you've gotten me all teary-eyed. You're better than anyone currently writing in the Tribune or the Sun-Times. I wish you all the best, and I'll be checking out your blog to see what happens next. Keep the faith and don't lose the hope.

Such kindness from complete strangers has been one of the many benefits of this job. I remember back in my first year as columnist in 1998, I wrote a piece after my father died. I received more than 100 letters and e-mails. These examples serve to reinforce what we already knew: People are basically good.

Here's a fun letter from Tom "tmad" Madigan, another reader who hadn't e-mailed me previously (that I could remember, anyway) but did post frequent comments on the previous incarnation of The Baldest Truth:

Mike: So Rob Marinelli has a job and you don't. WTF? Hope somebody at Comcast, ESPN, some mag - ANYTHING! - gives you a decent, well deserved shot. As Da Coach once said "This too shall pass." Wishing you and yours better days ahead.

Well, given my, um, close relationship with with a certain leggy ESPN sideline reporter, I'm guessing The World Wide Leader won't be calling anytime soon. And I'm not holding my breath on the others, either. These are tough times in our industry and jobs are few and far between. However, I did just learn that I have the inside track on the job of being Mr. Clean's stunt double.

The Balder Truth

So now we come to the sports portion of our show. Word is, there are a couple of fairly important football games Sunday. I'm 5-3 on my picks this postseason, which isn't all that great but is better than Chris Berman's 4-4. Sounds like slummin', but I'll take what little glory I can get.

EAGLES at CARDINALS: Denny Green's former team is about to reach that magic point where we can say: "They ARE who we thought they were!" If the Eagles' defense succeeds at making the Cardinals one-dimensional on offense, it could end up being a long day for Kurt Warner & Co. Meanwhile, I just have a feeling that Brian Westbrook, Donovan McNabb (or both) are going to come up huge for Philly. Oh sure, there's no home-field advantage in all of sports as traditionally wonderful as the one the Arizona Cardinals have been enjoying for, oh, 18 minutes, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say ... Eagles 27, Cardinals 17.

RAVENS at STEELERS: Ray Lewis could be wearing an evening gown and sipping tea out of a little cup with his pinkie finger extended and he still would scare the crap out of me. And as a guy who used to juggle shards of razor-sharp glass just for kicks, I don't scare easily. In the end, this one will come down to the QBs, as playoff games often do. Ben Roethlisberger was Joe Flacco before Joe Flacco was Joe Flacco, and Big Ben was better at it. And he is still better at it (as long as he's not riding his motorcycle on off-days). The Ravens will get to Ben some, but he'll still be standing in the end. Will Joe The Rookie be able to say the same after being folded, spindled and mutilated repeatedly by the Steelers? Perhaps, but I'm still saying ... Steelers 17, Ravens 13.

Proof Positive

It's Cubs Convention weekend, and thousands of folks who paid big bucks to wait two hours in line for Randy Hundley's autograph can't be wrong. Yes, just this once, Cubbie fans are blindly, crazily optimistic, so you know the championship is in the bag.

THE BALDEST TRUTH

I'll post one last letter today, this from loyal reader and frequent e-mailer Drew Stout of Cary:

Mike, I’m sorry to hear about the layoff. I know from personal experience that those things never come at a good time. I remember having moved from Illinois to upstate New York right after getting my degree nearly eight years ago and then getting laid off a mere eight months after I started my new career. And to top it off, she delivered our older son on the very day the layoff happened! (Almost as strange as my wife meeting me because she dialed the wrong number, but just as true.) It was easily the most emotional day I’ve ever had.

Everyone I’ve known who’s been laid off has come out better off, provided they accepted it for what it was and didn’t take it personally.

I think I’ve probably written you three or four letters in the past few weeks that I ended up not e-mailing because I just didn’t think they were up to snuff. You’ve set a pretty high standard in your columns as far as journalistic integrity, and I really like to make sure I’ve got my ducks in a row before I hit the send button.

I had one recent unsent e-mail that I wrote defending the BCS, and I’d even laid out a nice statistical analysis in support of it. Then I thought about it some more and decided I needed to make absolutely certain that I wasn’t completely off base. So I dug deeper and realized that the BCS wasn’t an official NCAA championship like the others. I’m not quite sure how I missed that important point, but it blew my entire argument out of the water on basic principle, so I ended up not sending it. To me, that’s the standard you represent. That’s why I’ve enjoyed reading your columns so much. Even if I haven’t agreed with you, I knew I was always getting the same degree of objectivity every time. Your thoughts were always opinionated but fair.

I look forward to you keeping TBT online. I will still be checking in to see what you’ve got to say. And I hope you continue to say what’s on your mind.

Don't worry. You can't get rid of me that easily.

God knows, my wife has tried ... and I just keep showing up over and over again like some kind of bald penny.