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Being a Hall of Fame voter is never easy for anybody who takes the task seriously. And I do.
Still, some years are more difficult than others, and this probably was the most challenging -- and most interesting -- ballot I've encountered in my nearly two decades as a BBWAA vote-caster. Between the steroid allegations and the sheer number of qualified first-year candidates, there were numerous tough calls.
Here's how I reasoned with myself as I first eliminated my non-candidates and then ultimately filled out my ballot.
NOT HALL-WORTHY
SANDY ALOMAR JR. … Highly intelligent future manager, only
decent numbers.
JEFF CIRILLO … Solid role player.
ROYCE CLAYTON … Good-fielding shortstop but soft hitter.
JEFF CONINE … Solid player but stats fall short.
SHAWN GREEN … 2,003 hits and 328 HR but lacking run
production.
ROBERTO HERNANDEZ … 326 saves but not dominant enough.
RYAN KLESKO … Valuable role player but only decent stats.
JOSE MESA … 321 saves but hardly dominant.
REGGIE SANDERS … Above-average player but only 983 RBI.
AARON SELE … Only 10 W per season and 4.61 ERA.
MIKE STANTON … Mostly a middle reliever and set-up man.
TODD WALKER … Defensive shortcomings and only OK numbers.
RONDELL WHITE … Proved that steroids don't help everybody.
WOODY WILLIAMS … Solid starter but mediocre record and ERA.
IT'S NOT THE "HALL OF GOOD" (OR EVEN VERY GOOD)
STEVE FINLEY … Outstanding outfielder with 2,548 hits, 304
HR and 320 SB but only 2-time All-Star and one top-10 MVP.
JULIO FRANCO … .298 hitter over 23 seasons with 2,586 career hits, but not nearly enough run production.
KENNY LOFTON … One of the best leadoff hitters in recent history
but well behind Raines in most categories.
EDGAR MARTINEZ … Possibly the best DH ever but his career HR (309), RBI (1,261) and slugging (.515) were hardly eye-popping.
DON MATTINGLY … Outstanding player but injuries and lack of
run-production during the second half of his career derails his candidacy.
FRED McGRIFF … Hard to argue with most of his numbers,
including 493 HR, 1,550 RBI, eight 100 RBI seasons. But only one top-5 MVP
vote (and no top-3) and no truly “magic” numbers (2,490 hits, 493 HR, .509
slugging). Also, one of the worst-fielding first basemen I’ve ever seen. Sorry, Crime Dog fans, but I
can’t shake the image of so many horrific plays when I covered his time with
the Cubs.
LARRY WALKER … He’s close in many categories, and had a strong
.965 OPS, but he was not quite dominant enough among his peers. Plus, his huge production at Coors Field skews all of his numbers.
DAVID WELLS … A fat man’s Curt Schilling: good clutch
pitcher with a high career winning percentage. But his high ERA, pedestrian WHIP
figure and low K total put him behind Schilling and Morris.
BERNIE WILLIAMS … Fine contributor to winning teams but
quite short in major statistical categories.
That leaves the
following 14 for serious consideration:
Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Rafael Palmeiro
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Lee Smith
Sammy Sosa
Alan Trammell
ALMOST, BUT NO
JEFF BAGWELL … Outstanding career numbers but behind Fred
McGriff in most categories. His HR total, 449, is not extraordinary for a
first baseman. There is steroid talk but no proof, so my decision on this borderline case was tipped by his poor
postseason numbers for a Houston team that desperately needed more from its leader to win
pennants. The one year the Astros finally made the World Series, they did it without an injured Bagwell. The fact that he got his
numbers in 15 seasons (McGriff needed 19), that he played much of his career in
the Astrodome (a pitcher’s park) and that he finished in the top-5 of MVP
voting three times puts him very close. I could consider him in the future.
DALE MURPHY … One of the great guys and honorable
competitors. That his final year on the ballot coincides with the first year of
so many infamous juicers, it is very, very tempting to give him a symbolic
vote. And he certainly has some impressive accomplishments, including
consecutive MVP awards. But his numbers simply fall short in so many areas, including batting average, hits, HR, RBI, OBP and slugging. The clincher: He ranks in the top 50 in only one major statistical category --
strikeouts.
LEE SMITH … He retired as MLB's all-time saves leader (since
eclipsed), and that alone warrants serious consideration. However, he benefited
greatly from the relatively recent trend in which closers became one-inning
specialists. Closers are so specialized, I need a guy to be flat-out dominating in the vein of Rich Gossage, Rollie Fingers or Mariano Rivera to give him my vote.
ALAN TRAMMELL … A super-solid player who helped usher in the
era of shortstops making major offensive contributions. Regardless of position,
however, I have trouble voting for a guy who had only one 100 RBI season, one
200-hit season and two 20 HR seasons. Not a single one of his career
numbers screams “Hall of Fame.” Super-solid is admirable but doesn’t equate to
an all-time great.
NO ... WITH ASTERISKS
BARRY BONDS … Statistical no-brainer but steroid use had a
major impact on his numbers in the latter third of his career. Game of Shadows,
the book that is considered the definitive chronicle of his juicing, said
he began using in 1999 after he was jealous of the attention Sammy Sosa and
Mark McGwire received the year before. If that is true, and there is no reason
to believe otherwise, Bonds already had incredible career numbers and was well on
his way to a Hall of Fame career. Given all that, I almost surely will vote for him … just not this year. I never have been a voter who emphasized “first-ballot Hall
of Famer” as being special, but I will in this kind of case.
ROGER CLEMENS … See my Bonds explanation regarding Hall of
Fame numbers before he allegedly started juicing. Unlike Bonds, Clemens was
completely cleared by a jury. Still, I’m guessing the true Clemens story has not
been told yet, so I’m also going to deny him first-ballot Hall status. As an
aside, one could argue that all the talk about him making a comeback next season is
another reason to delay his Hall entrance.
MARK McGWIRE … He’s kind of the anti-Bonds/Clemens. His
numbers were nowhere near Hall worthy until he started using his keister as a
pin-cushion. An amazing 42 percent of his career HRs came during the four-year
stretch when he was cheating and lying his head off. Given his one-dimensional
skill set, it’s not especially difficult to leave the box next to his name
unchecked. He’ll never get my vote, and it’s not just because of the cheating.
RAFAEL PALMEIRO … Although I try not to let steroid
allegations alone overwhelm my ballot, I am quite convinced that pretty much his
entire career was a fraud. So it’s easy for me to focus on his unimpressive OPS,
WAR, slugging and postseason numbers and deny him my vote.
MIKE PIAZZA … For now, I’m going to hold off. There are enough
steroid questions -- combined with a WAR ranked 179th all-time and a
five-year fade at the end of his career – to make him less than a first-ballot
Hall of Famer in my eyes.
SAMMY SOSA … That he was outed as a steroid cheat by the New
York Times probably is damning enough in the eyes of most voters. Even if he
never had put needles in his rump, however, the fact that he was caught using a
corked bat suggests there is nothing he wouldn’t do to gain an unfair
advantage. He was a horrible teammate, too. The juicing puts his career
accomplishments in doubt and his lack of character clinches it for me: He’s not
deserving of enshrinement, 600-plus homers or not.
AND FINALLY ... MY CLASS OF 2013 SELECTIONS
CRAIG BIGGIO … The steroid whispers are barely audible and
not a good enough reason to overlook the rest of his accomplishments. He has
the fifth-most doubles ever (No. 1 among right-handed hitters), and also ranks in
the top 21 in runs and hits. A multiple-threat player who had 291 HR and 414
SB. Unlike Bagwell, he was the spark plug
of Houston’s drive to its only pennant. A multiple Gold Glover at second base who moved to other positions when the Astros had the need. Numbers are almost identical to those of Robin Yount, a first-ballot choice (albeit just barely).
JACK MORRIS … His stats – 254 wins, .577 winning percentage,
3.90 ERA – make him a borderline case. But he was a workhorse for the Tigers,
Twins and Blue Jays, was one of the winningest pitchers in an increasingly
hitter-friendly era and had some memorable clutch performances. I unashamedly admit
that his 10-inning shutout of Atlanta in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series –
probably the most exciting event I ever covered – has influenced my vote.
CURT SCHILLING … Like Morris, not a slam-dunk choice. Given
that he posted only 216 regular-season wins, I wish his ERA had been lower than
3.46. Still, his strikeout total (15th all-time) and
K-to-BB ratio (second ever) are impressive. As fewer and fewer pitchers worked
deep into games, his nine seasons of 200-plus innings and 83 complete games
also deserve mention. Finally, there was his incredible postseason success: an
11-2 record, the third-best postseason winning percentage ever, a 2.23 ERA and a crucial role on three World Series winners. In five postseason
elimination games, he went 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA. How am I supposed to ignore those clutch numbers? I’m not, and I didn't.
TIM RAINES … In a team photo of best leadoff men ever, Raines
would be featured prominently. His career numbers generally were more
impressive than those of Lou Brock. Reached base more in his career than Tony Gwynn did
and had an almost identical OBP. As ESPN’s Jayson Stark pointed out, every eligible
player who reached base as many times as Raines did and had as high an OBP is
in the Hall. Throw in his base-stealing – fifth ever with 808 and second all-time with a .847 success rate -- and
he gets my vote.
So there you have it ...
Biggio, Morris, Schilling and Raines get my check marks; Bonds, Clemens and Sosa don't (though Bonds and Clemens might as early as next year).
Phew! That was exhausting!
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